/sci/ - Science & Math » Thread #11355770

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Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 00:57:44 2020 No.11355770 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>11356094

>R0-value of 2.6-3.5
>10-14 days incubation
>2-5% mortality rate
>confirmed cases in 27 countries
Let's stop fighting about the possible origins of the virus for a second and discuss the implications of the information we have.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 01:00:33 No.11355778 Report

Quoted By: >>11355836 >>11355849

The only implication that matters is that Chinese nationals should be shot on sight and burned before they have the chance to infect the rest of the world. But because Xi Jin Ping has leaned on the rest of the world and the rest of the CCP to downplay the situation we are now on the precipice of a global pandemic not seen since 1918.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 01:19:55 No.11355836 Report

Quoted By: >>11355840 >>11355858

>>11355778
Once it became obvious that containment would fail in China, spreading it to the rest of the world in order to hurt global economy and prevent an even more drastic Chinese recession relative to it, was surely prudent for someone to whom the death of a few million people is nothing.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 01:21:22 No.11355840 Report

Quoted By: >>11355845

>>11355836
Yep if I was Xi ping I would spread it as hard as I can to bring everyone down with china

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 01:24:21 No.11355845 Report

Quoted By:

>>11355840
The nuclear option?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 01:27:18 No.11355849 Report

Quoted By: >>11355869 >>11355871 >>11355944 >>11356044

>>11355778
>Doomer conspiracy shitposting

Nothing has happened and nothing will happen. Grow up.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 01:31:03 No.11355858 Report

Quoted By:

>>11355836
I don't blame Xi (from a strictly Machiavellian perspective) for trying to downplay things. He's trying to keep his regime in control and prevent local governments from exercising autonomy. I do blame our supposedly "morally upright" democratic leadership in the West for taking the lean and delaying the proper measures needed to contain the virus. But no, gotta keep dem Stawk prices up.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 01:35:22 No.11355869 Report

Quoted By: >>11355872

>>11355849
Imbecile. The only reason this virus hasn't spread to the entire globe is because these precautionary measures, delayed and weak as they are, are slowing the growth of the virus. Had the Chinamen instituted strict controls when they first accepted the dangers of this disease in mid December of last year, this entire viral outbreak would barely make the local papers. There is no such thing as too cautious when it comes to these new diseases.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 01:36:28 No.11355871 Report

Quoted By: >>11355913

>>11355849
>R0-value of 2.6-3.5
>10-14 days incubation
>2-5% mortality rate
I can't comprehend why a significant portion of posters on a board named science&math so viciously refuse to acknowledge data in this matter. If the R0 was 1.2, the incubation time 3 days and the number of infected the same as it is today I'd say it's nothing to worry about. But that's not what the data says. It's like these people never even had high-school statistics.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 01:36:55 No.11355872 Report

Quoted By: >>11355908 >>11355995

>>11355869
>Muh le epic zombie apocalypse doomsday like in da movies

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 01:50:01 No.11355901 Report

Quoted By: >>11355922

2010 study
5 of the 8 authors currently work in the Wuhan facility.
Playing with HIV injection into NCov virus.
Specifically testing ACE2 receptors and human susceptibilities.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/44692434_Angiotensin-converting_enzyme_2_ACE2_proteins_of_different_bat_species_confer_variable_susceptibility_to_SARS-CoV_entry

The virus is man made and escaped from the Wuhan lab. The question is why were they doing this and did they release it on purpose.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 01:52:24 No.11355908 Report

Quoted By: >>11355926 >>11355927 >>11356136 >>11356138

>>11355872
If 10% of the World population get infected, roughly 20 million people will die. That's not nearly enough damage to cause any nations to collapse but it's certainly not irrelevant. Imagine having such utter contempt for human life and posting on a science board. Pathetic.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 01:53:39 No.11355913 Report

Quoted By: >>11355935

>>11355871
What's an S/N?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 01:56:15 No.11355922 Report

Quoted By: >>11355939 >>11355995

>>11355901
You should shut the fuck up. You're worse than the people who unironically say that the flu (0.03% mortality) and Corona (~3% mortality) are the same thing. That's factor 100 retardation, but I think you are worse.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 01:57:45 No.11355926 Report

Quoted By: >>11355954 >>11355995

>>11355908
“If something that won’t happen happens, then X”

Lemme know when Jesus returns. It’s just as likely and would probably be more amusing to watch on the news.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 01:57:47 No.11355927 Report

Quoted By:

>>11355908
If all of China got infected, roughly 27M people will die. You're assuming treatment efficacy, susceptibility and severity are going to be equal across populations which isn't going to be the case since China has more smokers than the entire US population and a piss-poor healthcare system. These are relevant factors when dealing with a respiratory virus.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 01:59:34 No.11355935 Report

Quoted By: >>11355941

>>11355913
I don't know, what is it?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 02:02:41 No.11355939 Report

Quoted By:

>>11355922
You can’t compare the flu to corona right now. The argument people use is flawed. You’re the retard. The article confirms that it’s man made in Wuhan unless you want to believe it’s a coincidence. Why are you so angry?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 02:02:51 No.11355941 Report

Quoted By: >>11355981

>>11355935
Number of susceptible persons to infection in a population over that population. This is why everything that has an R0>1 doesn't infect everyone in the world and why measles doesn't infect literally everyone within 8 cycles of replication.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 02:04:32 No.11355944 Report

Quoted By: >>11355951

>>11355849
>Nothing has happened
Nothing has happened where? Tell people living in China that nothing is happening.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 02:06:18 No.11355951 Report

Quoted By: >>11355955

>>11355944
>Nothing has happened where?

Anywhere.

>Tell people living in China that nothing is happening.

Ten thousand dead is nothing, and ten thousand dead won’t even happen.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 02:07:22 No.11355954 Report

Quoted By:

>>11355926
Pic related had an R0 value of 1.4.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 02:07:39 No.11355955 Report

Quoted By: >>11355958 >>11355962

>>11355951
So you are only considering dead a happening, what about millions quarantined? What about all their businesses shut down? Where are they getting food? Nothing is happening.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 02:08:35 No.11355958 Report

Quoted By: >>11355995

>>11355955
>So you are only considering dead a happening

Yeah.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 02:10:10 No.11355962 Report

Quoted By:

>>11355955
Unironically part and parcel of living in a police state using a convenient opportunity for a practice run of shutting down a large area and population.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 02:17:40 No.11355981 Report

Quoted By: >>11355993

>>11355941
Okay good point, this is a metric I wasn't aware of until now. So how susceptible are people to Corona, what would be the ceiling for percentage of infected in a given population if there were no containment efforts? Two weeks is a lot of time to spread it around, which means more potential exposure to susceptible individuals, no? I'm not trying to argue, I'm trying to reevaluate. I won't make another Corona thread if this metric changes things.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 02:24:59 No.11355993 Report

Quoted By: >>11356025

>>11355981
>how susceptible are people to Corona
We don't know but it's probably constantly decreasing considering more people are being exposed. Some of these people are likely clearing the virus without ever becoming symptomatic.
>what would be the ceiling for percentage of infected in a given population if there were no containment efforts
Throw out the data from after containment efforts started, account for a 7 day minimum latency and extrapolate based off of other coronavirus infection trajectories. Not perfect but that's probably the best way to estimate.
>Two weeks is a lot of time to spread it around, which means more potential exposure to susceptible individuals
Yes, but not everyone is latent for 2 weeks, the range also needs to be accounted for unless you just want to make a maximum expected cases.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 02:25:29 No.11355995 Report

Quoted By:

>>11355958
>>11355926
>>11355922
>>11355872
take your meds, schizos

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 02:49:33 No.11356025 Report

Quoted By: >>11356030

>>11355993
Okay, so what's you personal take on Corona, how bad is it going to get? With the long non-symptomatic but infectious incubation rate I was pretty convinced that the confirmed cases globally were only the tip of the iceberg as well as severely delayed and we were due for a rapid increase in cases in the coming week. The situation in China is obviously worse than reported but could containment down to a few 1000s cases still be done in the West?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 02:56:29 No.11356030 Report

Quoted By: >>11356040

>>11356025
I expect 0 US fatalities, probably a couple hundred cases. Not really sure of what the hell China is doing, but it's going to be much worse there than anywhere else due to poor air quality, TCM being 95% useless but a sizeable portion of the at-risk population being complete believers in it, poor healthcare availability and education generally, and a massive smoking culture. The rest of the world will probably fall somewhere between the extremes but I'd unironically expect China to be somewhere between 90-99% of the global impact in terms of moralities and at least 70% of infections.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 03:01:58 No.11356040 Report

Quoted By:

>>11356030
*mortalities, sorry, it's late.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 03:05:01 No.11356044 Report

Quoted By: >>11356089

>>11355849
I hate alarmists more than anyone, but now that the disease has infected double that of SARS, it's beyond the point of concern

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 03:33:10 No.11356089 Report

Quoted By:

>>11356044
>I hate alarmists more than anyone, but now that the disease has infected double that of SARS, it's beyond the point of concern

Lolno.
It’s an epic news story to put on magazine covers for a few months that gives brainlets some excitement.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 03:35:16 No.11356094 Report

Quoted By: >>11356104

>>11355770
First up this is not going to do much harm. However there appear to be some main points as I understand them:
1) We can expect increasing rates of viral and bacterial disease outbreaks
2) Increasing chance that outbreaks will be more infectious and more lethal.
3) Increasing disinformation in the public domain regarding outbreaks
4) Static inability of authorities to contain outbreaks.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 03:39:32 No.11356104 Report

Quoted By:

>>11356094
>Provides no evidence at all

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 04:01:01 No.11356136 Report

Quoted By:

>>11355908
>all humans life has value and everyone is valuable just because they are human
Christcuck detected. Kys retard.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 04:02:14 No.11356138 Report

Quoted By: >>11356144

>>11355908
>all human life has value, and everyone is valuable just because they are human
Christcuck detected. Kys retard.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 03 Feb 2020 04:05:23 No.11356144 Report

Quoted By:

>>11356138
>Only Christians value their fellow humans

Speak for yourself, sociopath.

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