>>11341540Well clearly this is just an exponential fit into the data. It can be a good aproximation but usually only in very early stages of the outbreak. Also one should not use the found parameters to extrapolate from a single case in some country, because it is likely going to be stopped from spreading if it is only a single case.
In reality nations are actively fighting the outbreak, wich slows the outbreak. So usually the data is better represented by a logistical function.
In this graph i fitted a logistical function in the latest data(up to 29.jan) and extrapolated a bit. In this model the amount of infected in mainland china would actually cap at around 16000 people.
This is only for china though. It is also too early to make an accurate prediction more than 2 days in the future here. it might be that the outbreak is still in its exponential stage and the pivot we are seeing in the last two datapoints is just som statistical fluctuation. so take it with a grain of salt.
None the less, i would be suprised if the desease infects more than a few ten thousand people in total so in conclusion, at this moment, i would estimate the risk for the average person outside of china as very small.
>Do you think this model is good?up until february maybe but not much further. the model is probably gonna estimate too high even then
