>>11268381Here are my guesses.
>>first man on marsBelow 30%. The technology for it has existed for decades but we lack motivating reasons to do it.
>>commercial fusion powerBasically 0%. It would need huge innovation. Even if any of the test facilities are successful in producing more electricity than they consume and at a sufficient rate compared to facility cost within a few years, it would take an other several years just to get parties interested and acquire approvals. I think for truly commercial fusion power we need completely new designs that are scalable.
>>permanently staffed moon baseAlso pretty much 0%. No sufficient reasons to do it, not enough interest to get it done. Would have already been possible in the 70s but the money is better spent elsewhere. I still think it's more likely than fusion because if someone with the means suddenly decides we gotta do it, it could be done within 5 years for sure.
>>private ai buddies like the movie "her"Haven't seen that movie so I have no clue. But I think by the end of the 20s there will be huge progress toward AI and primitive artificial buddies 100% because their predecessors already exist. But they won't be indistinguishable from humans and still lack an intuitive understanding of the world. They will just be good enough to fake it in most situations.
>>global ban of cars with combustion engines0% of that happening because there are enough countries who aren't ruled by crazy climate hysterics.
