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Doomsday Argument (Doom Late vs Doom Soon)

Anonymous Tue 10 Dec 03:10:54 2019 No.11214035 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>11215351 >>11215357 >>11215434 >>11215561 >>11215784 >>11215993 >>11217478

Doesn't this pretty much confirm humanity is never going to become a true space faring species and that we are going to go extinct on this rock? The chances of us being in a Doom Late scenario are many orders of magnitude lower than us being in a Doom Soon scenario.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 10 Dec 2019 19:09:28 No.11215351 Report

Quoted By:

>>11214035
bump

Anonymous

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Anonymous Tue 10 Dec 2019 19:10:55 No.11215357 Report

Quoted By: >>11215430

>>11214035
doomsday has already arrived, now they need to turn off that god damn skynet

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 10 Dec 2019 19:35:37 No.11215430 Report

Quoted By: >>11215997

>>11215357
Can you explain this in detail?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 10 Dec 2019 19:37:35 No.11215434 Report

Quoted By: >>11215533

>>11214035
And every person has a 1 in over 300 million chances of winning the lottery, yet about every 2 months or so, someone wins.
Just because something seems unlikely doesn't mean it is.
Maybe life is something that just takes about 10 billion years to even begin.

Either way, humanity will probably never reach something Star Wars like. Robots we build might since they don't really experience time, so if a society of AI takes 4 billion years to colonize thousands of star systems, then so be it--humans would have evolved out of existence or died off hundreds of times over in that same time period

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 10 Dec 2019 20:23:34 No.11215533 Report

Quoted By:

>>11215434
>so if a society of AI takes 4 billion years to colonize thousands of star systems

For what purpose would such a thing ever exist?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 10 Dec 2019 20:39:51 No.11215561 Report

Quoted By:

>>11214035
Even without the doomsday argument, it would be unexpected that we would have changed ourselves so little with technology that we'd still count as "humanity" by the time we're colonizing other solar systems. Colonizing our solar system is a lot more ambiguous - whether you try to reason from the doomsday argument or our current state. So even there there's a surprising agreement between empirical reasoning and the doomsday argument.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 10 Dec 2019 22:22:08 No.11215784 Report

Quoted By:

>>11214035
>dude, listen, what if- listen to me- just what if- hear me out- what if there's a limited pool of potential human existences and - just listen - wait - wait - listen - we had to be in the middle of it, because I'll randomly apply statistics to this baseless thought construct

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2019 00:01:46 No.11215993 Report

Quoted By:

>>11214035
The doomsday argument is retarded because it's actually a conditional probability problem. If there is a box with 10 balls and a box with 100 balls, and you picked 10, then you most likely picked from the box with 10 balls. However, if there are 10 boxes with 100 balls then your odds are 50-50 (1/11 * 1/10 = 10/11 * 1/100). The actual probability therefore depends on the distribution of the number of human lives a human civilization creates over its lifetime, which is completely unknown.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2019 00:03:52 No.11215997 Report

Quoted By:

>>11215430
everyone in my area is a fucking zombie, and it seems to have happened over night, even the animals are retarded. i blame 5g, unless it is quantum entanglement wormhole technology that fries people’s brains

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2019 00:34:46 No.11216057 Report

Quoted By:

hhhmmmmmmmm

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2019 16:28:03 No.11217478 Report

Quoted By: >>11217506

>>11214035
we are postdoomsday

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2019 16:39:55 No.11217506 Report

Quoted By:

>>11217478
So what is in store for this planet?

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