Simulation hypothesis

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Three possibilities:
1) The fraction of civilisations that reach a posthuman stage that can run simulations is very close to zero, or
2) The fraction of such civilisations and individuals in them that elect to run simulations is very close to zero, or
3) The fraction of conscious observers that are in a simulation is very close to 1

Or, unless we are now living in a simulation, our descendants and, really, any other civilisation will almost certainly never run a simulation

Where is the fault in Bostrom's reasoning here? And without invoking that it is 'unfalsifiable', how do you reject the simulation hypothesis?