Questions about climate modelling
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Quoted By: >>11120426 >>11120759 >>11120862 >>11121492
I have some questions about climate change, mostly specifically about climate modelling.
Does anyone want to take a crack at answering these?
We can only predict the weather a few days in advance based off of initial conditions. After a certain point in time that prediction becomes less and less accurate due to unknown chaotic forces. Since climate is averaged weather over at least 30 years how is it possible that long term climate projections can be accurate due to the same chaotic unknown variables?
Does parameterization of things like clouds lead to small errors that scale up to larger errors over time? How do scientists account for those unknown variables?
Are our current models based on proxies from our past?
Do you think proxies like tree ring data give us an accurate picture of past climates?
In your opinion is it better to measure the effects of AGW through surface temperature or tropospheric temperature?
If natural climate has a balance and homeostasis of positive and negative feedbacks then why do periods of dramatic cooling and warming exist in earths climate history?
Does anyone want to take a crack at answering these?
We can only predict the weather a few days in advance based off of initial conditions. After a certain point in time that prediction becomes less and less accurate due to unknown chaotic forces. Since climate is averaged weather over at least 30 years how is it possible that long term climate projections can be accurate due to the same chaotic unknown variables?
Does parameterization of things like clouds lead to small errors that scale up to larger errors over time? How do scientists account for those unknown variables?
Are our current models based on proxies from our past?
Do you think proxies like tree ring data give us an accurate picture of past climates?
In your opinion is it better to measure the effects of AGW through surface temperature or tropospheric temperature?
If natural climate has a balance and homeostasis of positive and negative feedbacks then why do periods of dramatic cooling and warming exist in earths climate history?
