/sci/ - Science & Math » Thread #10987564

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More Moore's Laws Please

Anonymous Fri 20 Sep 05:22:35 2019 No.10987564 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>10987617 >>10987666 >>10987674 >>10988097 >>10989789 >>10989834

>The year is 2083... due to Moore's Law, $1000 of computing power is now equivalent to a billion Earth's worth of human brains. Laptop-sized computers of today can perform the equivalent of all human thought over the last ten thousand years in less than ten microseconds. Technology is progressing so fast that – in order for people to comprehend it – neural upgrades have become necessary on a regular basis.

This is fake right?

https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2080-2089.htm#hyper-intelligent-computers

Anonymous

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Anonymous Fri 20 Sep 2019 05:25:26 No.10987574 Report

Quoted By: >>10987617 >>10987619

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 20 Sep 2019 05:25:54 No.10987575 Report

Quoted By:

If you can believe that, I have a flying car to sell you!

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 20 Sep 2019 05:51:56 No.10987617 Report

Quoted By:

>>10987564
Chart of human population

>>10987574
https://digitalik.net/btc/

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 20 Sep 2019 05:53:27 No.10987619 Report

Quoted By: >>10987645

>>10987574
lol
bitcoin only exists for money laundering.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 20 Sep 2019 06:17:47 No.10987645 Report

Quoted By: >>10987743

>>10987619
>immutable public ledger
>money laundering
choose one

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 20 Sep 2019 06:33:44 No.10987666 Report

Quoted By:

>>10987564
Yeah, but we'll also be running out out phosphorus real soon after that, if we havent already reduced our consumption. Long story short, shits gonna get fucked.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 20 Sep 2019 06:35:06 No.10987673 Report

Quoted By: >>10988015

If that chart were real I would be able to simulate mouse brain on $1,000 computer. While in REALITY we still can't make an accurate simulation of mouse brain on $1,000,000 computer...

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 20 Sep 2019 06:36:35 No.10987674 Report

Quoted By:

>>10987564
I'd ignore stuff like this-we have no idea what the next decade holdsin terms of stuff like AI or fusion or brain augmentation. It could be like cell phones, where the high-end phones of 2009 are like cheap toys next to the hyper-advanced ones that are coming out now-or it could that as moore's law and the laws of the universe start ot REALLY oppose eachother, we'll leave the Era of Constant Computing Power Growth largely behind.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 20 Sep 2019 07:08:39 No.10987712 Report

Quoted By:

Who knows but exponential growth is certainly possible and we see it pretty clearly. Look at human population now vs 1800.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 20 Sep 2019 07:38:10 No.10987743 Report

Quoted By: >>10987800 >>10988021

>>10987645
There are literally laundering services that take a small fee to tumble their users bitcoin such that they cannot be accounted to anyone anymore with choosable certainty.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 20 Sep 2019 08:27:11 No.10987800 Report

Quoted By:

>>10987743
The exact same can be said for traditional fiat, laundering services exist.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 20 Sep 2019 11:37:02 No.10988015 Report

Quoted By: >>10989752

>>10987673
Von Neuman Architechture doesn't scale.
Gotta use neural networks or similar

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 20 Sep 2019 11:39:35 No.10988021 Report

Quoted By:

>>10987743
mixers don't work. They are easily tracked
bitcoin was designed with the legal definition of fungible in mind

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 20 Sep 2019 12:27:19 No.10988097 Report

Quoted By:

>>10987564
Moore's law is dead. Companies need to make chips larger in order to adhere to it. This is why shit isn't getting faster and why they are just throwing more cores at the problem. Physics caught up with manufacturing.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 21 Sep 2019 01:46:41 No.10989747 Report

Quoted By:

Not fake.

We will literally warm our bodies against the heat generated by AI in internet of things

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 21 Sep 2019 01:51:24 No.10989752 Report

Quoted By: >>10990676

>>10988015
Why not just copy the structure of mammal brain and try to replicate it with inorganic materials?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 21 Sep 2019 02:11:09 No.10989789 Report

Quoted By:

>>10987564

now.. to FEEEEEEL the lovely strength of computation

Anonymous

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Anonymous Sat 21 Sep 2019 02:18:49 No.10989810 Report

Quoted By: >>10989865 >>10989879 >>10990420

Ctrl - Alt - Delete coming for this simulation shortly

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 21 Sep 2019 02:19:56 No.10989814 Report

Quoted By:

The company i work for is developing bio-neural gel packs for use in space flight.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 21 Sep 2019 02:33:17 No.10989834 Report

Quoted By:

>>10987564
>fake
No. "Fake" would imply that there was something real that it was in reference to, but intentionally avoided. This doesn't even qualify as fake; it's pure fantasy.

The ONLY way an exponential curve can be maintained for an indefinite duration is if there's some force in the world that keeps track of gains and subtly shifts physics to make new types of things possible whenever a previous type of resource is maximized. Raw computing power isn't measured in terms of Moore's law; it reflects an optimization trajectory that is a base function of global economic output. The depth and duration of a logarithmic curve is centralized to the exact place where the resources that define it have already been assembled. You don't reach a point in economic transaction where suddenly Africans can print phones with the 3D printers they made themselves; you have give them the printers.

Nature doesn't do exponential resource chains. It does bell curves. Everything reaches its climax and a new optimization path has to be found. Evolution took a fuckhuge amount of time, and if we misread the slope of the crash, it'll have to restart from "tool using brains." On a larger timeline, our bell curve will just look like another random dip before whatever actually does end up figuring out how to meet the asymptote.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 21 Sep 2019 02:54:55 No.10989865 Report

Quoted By:

>>10989810
uh oh looks like she is getting ready to blow

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 21 Sep 2019 03:01:51 No.10989879 Report

Quoted By:

>>10989810
>CO2 is bad for life
nice meme

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 21 Sep 2019 09:08:19 No.10990420 Report

Quoted By:

>>10989810
>Increased almost 100ppm since I was born
Are people gonna need co2 scrubbers in their homes 70 years from now?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 21 Sep 2019 09:23:52 No.10990434 Report

Quoted By: >>10990825 >>10990964

>The year is 2018... due to economic growth the world economy measures out at 87 trillion per year, from a population of 7.7 billion. It took the world 200,000 years to get to 1 billion and only 200 more to get to 7 billion.

You best get used to exponential growth: you're living in it.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 21 Sep 2019 13:41:49 No.10990676 Report

Quoted By:

>>10989752
>just
>copy the structure of mammal brain

You underestimate the difficulty of this task. There are not only hundred millions+ of neurons but trillions of synapses.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 21 Sep 2019 14:49:53 No.10990825 Report

Quoted By: >>10990846 >>10990913

>>10990434
Or just the first half of a bell curve, before it becomes unsustainable and crashes with no survivors.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 21 Sep 2019 15:07:34 No.10990846 Report

Quoted By: >>10990968

>>10990825
there will be survivors. I suspect it will be some sort of merge with AI and the brightest minds available. Or just the people with the most $$$. Or both.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 21 Sep 2019 15:42:30 No.10990913 Report

Quoted By:

>>10990825
>the first half of a bell curve
invoking a bell curve when you aren't talking about a probability distribution is just confusing.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 21 Sep 2019 16:05:11 No.10990964 Report

Quoted By:

>>10990434
>You best get used to exponential growth: you're living in it.
Meanwhile we've been stuck at 3.5ghz for the last decade

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 21 Sep 2019 16:06:15 No.10990968 Report

Quoted By:

>>10990846
>I suspect it will be some sort of merge with AI and the brightest minds available. Or just the people with the most $$$. Or both.
No plutocracy has ever survived the praetorian paradox

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