/sci/ - Science & Math » Thread #10826066

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Anonymous Sun 21 Jul 23:50:52 2019 No.10826066 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>10826086 >>10826352 >>10826557 >>10826696 >>10826717 >>10826750 >>10827887 >>10827945 >>10830215 >>10830236 >>10832802 >>10838017 >>10839767

Do you guys think Alien life is extremely rare in our universe? I watched a video explaining how our solar system is very safe for us compared to other solar systems. Like for example, we have a big moon and our sun is not super active. It just seems like so many things need to be in a certain way for life to start and survive in our universe.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 22 Jul 2019 00:01:28 No.10826086 Report

Quoted By:

>>10826066
yeah, also Jupiter protects us from comets shitting on us, with Saturn and the boring ice giants for backup. also we're in the habitable zone of the galaxy (other parts of the galaxy you get fucked by supernovae or shit). also we got lucky with lots of water and heavy elements which required our solar system to be formed from the remnants of some lucky past supernovas/kilanovas.

the Drake equation is a meme, it doesn't take half these things into account. the variant Drake equation for your probability of finding a gf is probably more accurate

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 22 Jul 2019 02:10:05 No.10826329 Report

Quoted By: >>10826349 >>10826696 >>10836374

A couple of other things to consider - our understanding of abiogenesis is still pretty low, and we won't have any clue on how common it is until we get the ELT up and doing spectragraphic analysis of exoplanet's atmospheres.

The second is that while life on Earth formed nearly as soon as things cooled down enough, it took billions of years to make the leap to multicellular creatures. Maybe that leap is exceedingly rare.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 22 Jul 2019 02:22:00 No.10826349 Report

Quoted By:

>>10826329
even if we get the future space telescopes up and running, the probability of the conditions required for abiogenesis will still be highly uncertain. there are huge uncertainties that enter the drake equation even if we refine each individual term through our best experimental efforts, for the foreseeable future.

even on earth we have only very crude models for how abiogenesis occurred, so clearly this sort of understanding is nowhere near being realized

so in other words any estimate for the probability of life forming is super speculative and not to be taken seriously

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 22 Jul 2019 02:23:57 No.10826352 Report

Quoted By:

>>10826066
See that's the big thing though - we're in the perfect position for our earth life to flourish, because we're perfectly adapted for this planet thanks to evolution.
For all we know life itself started because of spooky space viruses that came from planets much different from our own.
Not to say that's what happened, but because we don't know basically anything about what caused life to spring up, we can't determine how rare it would be, or really what's necessary for it.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 22 Jul 2019 04:12:51 No.10826557 Report

Quoted By:

>>10826066
Yea, and how we touched moon just to potentially dis balance it.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 22 Jul 2019 05:17:40 No.10826696 Report

Quoted By: >>10830210 >>10832711

>>10826329
Evolutionarily it seems multicellularity is actually a common step since we have seen it evolve independently from single-celled organisms several times now. Life might have emerged curiously early but we have never seen it in lab environments and when you calculate the probability of the spontaneous emergence of RNA, the chance of it occurring in any single observable universe is something to the degree of 10^-1080 (eugene koonin)

>>10826066
Extremely rare at the least and it is a real possibility that there is no life causally connected with us. Eukaryogenesis is another very improbable singularity kind of event that occurred only once and the specialness of which means we possibly shouldn't expect to see it anywhere else, and without which there no conscious life

>The formidable problem that these fundamental complex features present to evolutionary biologists makes Darwin's famous account of the evolution of the eye look like a simple, straightforward case. Indeed, so intimidating is the challenge of eukaryogenesis that the infamous notion of ‘irreducible complexity’ has sneaked into serious scientific debate [11], albeit followed by a swift refutation [12].

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 22 Jul 2019 05:26:45 No.10826717 Report

Quoted By:

>>10826066
It's all speculative and no one really knows. There are very good arguments for either side. There may be many more factors that we are still unaware of. The end.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 22 Jul 2019 05:46:42 No.10826750 Report

Quoted By: >>10840243

>>10826066

Until they pop down from the skies and start blasting us into oblivion because they see what shitty lifeforms we are. And smartly, wouldn't want us to become space bound and become a threat.

You will have your answer.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 22 Jul 2019 17:22:59 No.10827887 Report

Quoted By:

>>10826066
We’re alone.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 22 Jul 2019 17:33:04 No.10827900 Report

Quoted By: >>10836357 >>10839775

Life in the universe has to be really rare.

It's possible, but very very unlikely for molecules like ribosomes DNA and RNA to spontaneously form. But given the size of our universe I certainly believe we are not alone. I just think the distance to our nearest neighbors is so vast, we'll ever be able to detect them.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 22 Jul 2019 18:06:27 No.10827945 Report

Quoted By:

>>10826066
>Alien life
...doesn't even need to be carbon based.
I like to imagine this is just a shittest to let us work out our collective less charming traits before being welcomed in the galactic collective.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 23 Jul 2019 04:00:35 No.10829307 Report

Quoted By: >>10829524

Thinking life is extremely rare is the 21st century equivalent of the geocentric model.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 23 Jul 2019 06:09:09 No.10829524 Report

Quoted By: >>10830019

>>10829307
Show us that it isn’t. At least by how they are currently understood, the probabilities involved in singularity events like abiogenesis and eukaryogenesis tell us that life is very, very rare

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 23 Jul 2019 12:20:12 No.10830019 Report

Quoted By:

>>10829524
>is rare
should be
ftfy

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 23 Jul 2019 14:25:26 No.10830210 Report

Quoted By: >>10834853

>>10826696
>we have a sample of 1 in which it happened
>conclusion: it’s very rare
We have no idea. Every condition we imagine is necessary for life we set because it’s necessary for the one sample we know. Indeed our very definition of “life” is set by this one example. Yet even here, at the fringe, there is ambiguity.
Even our “habitable zone” is nonsense, even considering our one sample.
The whole argument is a tautology built on ignorance.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 23 Jul 2019 14:29:22 No.10830215 Report

Quoted By:

>>10826066
Absence of evidence is evidence of absence. So yes, life is likely very rare.

It is not proof of absence, tough.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 23 Jul 2019 14:42:38 No.10830236 Report

Quoted By: >>10830244 >>10832477

>>10826066
Water based life is rare.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 23 Jul 2019 14:49:20 No.10830244 Report

Quoted By:

>>10830236
And all life is water based.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 23 Jul 2019 15:27:01 No.10830317 Report

Quoted By: >>10830383 >>10830489

Life is common, but most life in the universe statistically occurs on super earths or water worlds which prevent intelligent life from ever becoming space faring.

Super earth life cant break past their gravity with chemical rockets and water world life dont have the manipulators or environment for technology or they have a mile thick ice ceiling.

We're the only fuckers lucky enough out there to get out into space and it's our duty to help those poor saps

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 23 Jul 2019 15:53:39 No.10830383 Report

Quoted By:

>>10830317
It's our duty to find them and start the galactic opium trade

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 23 Jul 2019 16:38:56 No.10830489 Report

Quoted By:

>>10830317
What if super earth life skips chemical rockets and goes straight to stuff like nuclear salt water rockets, etc.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 24 Jul 2019 09:21:35 No.10832477 Report

Quoted By: >>10832706

>>10830236
What alternatives really other than silicone?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 24 Jul 2019 12:27:34 No.10832706 Report

Quoted By: >>10840247

>>10832477
Methane ecology.

Super weird shit that's theoretically possible?
Plasma.
Convection currents

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 24 Jul 2019 12:35:16 No.10832711 Report

Quoted By: >>10834853

>>10826696
>Evolutionarily it seems multicellularity is actually a common step since we have seen it evolve independently from single-celled organisms several times now.
Source? AFAIK, this happened exactly once.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 24 Jul 2019 13:47:33 No.10832802 Report

Quoted By: >>10837980

>>10826066
Yes, it's rare. It took a billion years for any form of life to appear on Earth. Then it took another billions of years for life to evolve into complex creatures. Then it took another billions of years for humans to come into existence. And out of all of the animal species that exist, humans are the only ones who give a shit about the Universe

Anonymous

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Anonymous Thu 25 Jul 2019 03:57:20 No.10834853 Report

Quoted By: >>10839763

>>10832711
>Multicellularity has evolved independently at least 25 times in eukaryotes,[5][6] and also in some prokaryotes, like cyanobacteria, myxobacteria, actinomycetes, Magnetoglobus multicellularis or Methanosarcina
Was also captured happening in real time for the first time a couple of months back, cool stuff
https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=PLI-6-wtgFSgAdYVZUOUrDAcEMmeRcNnJ-&v=H737KNly2l4

>>10830210
>What is the Copernican principle
The processes by which life arises in a hypothetical other pocket of the universe might be unlike ours but to assume that the probabilities involved in their emergence is much more likely than ours assumes specialness on our part, and in that way our sample of one tells us a lot. If according Eugene Koonin, a biologist with one of the highest h-indexes in his field, the probability of finding life from RNA in any one observable universe is 10^-1018, and if we assume mediocrity, there would have to be unthinkably many different but just as unlikely processes by which life might emerge to meet the conditions that 1. we are just a randomly drawn process from the set of all possible processes and 2. life is common in the universe, which is just silly. Until something changes in our understanding of abiogenesis, there should not be life anywhere else in the universe. Pic related are his calculations

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 25 Jul 2019 20:19:42 No.10836357 Report

Quoted By:

>>10827900
Too fat

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 25 Jul 2019 20:24:46 No.10836374 Report

Quoted By: >>10838012

>>10826329
The thing about abiogenesis is, we've never seen it happen. Anywhere. Ever. We presume that it happened on Earth or somewhere near it because life is here and we think it had to come from somewhere.

Life started on Earth almost as soon as it was able. Okay. Why did it never happen again since? If abiogenesis happens so easily, why is it not happening all the time? How come we don't observe it happening more than once?

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 26 Jul 2019 07:59:02 No.10837980 Report

Quoted By:

>>10832802
How old do you think the Earth is?

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 26 Jul 2019 08:19:15 No.10838012 Report

Quoted By: >>10838197 >>10838201 >>10839748

>>10836374

I'm sure you have a ready response to what I'm about to say, but I'm going to officially call bullshit anyway and simply link the most relevant part of wiki that I can find without actually reading it ahead of time. My understanding is that basically a few decades ago some scientists did soup-experiments, ran electricity through it/stimulated it, and the right amino acids etc popped out.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 26 Jul 2019 08:24:27 No.10838017 Report

Quoted By:

>>10826066

What if...

What if dark matter is an alien civilization figuring out how to isolate their worlds from the the destructive powers of heat and E&M seen in flares and nova. They're still able to snag energy from the gravitational field, but don't exist in our visible universe.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Fri 26 Jul 2019 10:48:58 No.10838197 Report

Quoted By:

>>10838012
That's the Miller experiment. He created amino acids from water, methane, ammonia, and hydrogen and electricity. So my dude, what order of complexity do you consider that synthesis to be one compared to the simplest living cell?

Paul Davies describes it as building a brick vs. building the entire Empire State Building, but I'd like to know what analogy you'd make.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Fri 26 Jul 2019 10:52:05 No.10838201 Report

Quoted By:

>>10838012
That's the Miller experiment. He created amino acids from water, methane, ammonia, and hydrogen with electricity. So my dude, what order of complexity do you consider that synthesis to be on compared to creating the simplest living cell?

Paul Davies describes it as building a brick vs. building the entire Empire State Building, but I'd like to know what analogy you'd make.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 27 Jul 2019 00:14:30 No.10839748 Report

Quoted By:

>>10838012
>I'm sure you have a ready response to what I'm about to say, but I'm going to officially call bullshit anyway and simply link the most relevant part of wiki that I can find without actually reading it ahead of time.
What does this even mean tf

Anonymous

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Anonymous Sat 27 Jul 2019 00:21:49 No.10839763 Report

Quoted By:

>>10834853
>Those calculations
>an accurate estimate of anything

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 27 Jul 2019 00:23:15 No.10839767 Report

Quoted By:

>>10826066
go watch Isaac Arthur's Youtube channel on all his Fermi Paradox vids and decide for yourself lots of good info to make you think.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 27 Jul 2019 00:27:38 No.10839775 Report

Quoted By:

>>10827900
MOMMY

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 27 Jul 2019 04:47:07 No.10840240 Report

Quoted By:

modern history is nothing but a speck in grand history and our solar system isn't natural

in fact our 'natural' existence is in itself very unnatural

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 27 Jul 2019 04:48:59 No.10840243 Report

Quoted By: >>10840256

>>10826750
wouldn't the be ethical and shit, like just leave us to our own devices until we were ready

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 27 Jul 2019 04:50:00 No.10840247 Report

Quoted By:

>>10832706
So the glownigga from simpsons is technically possible?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 27 Jul 2019 04:52:59 No.10840256 Report

Quoted By:

>>10840243
It’s entirely ethical to nip a problem in the bud.

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