>>13456435>>13456424Starlink at full network deployment is expected to offer internet to 3% of the entire world. That's roughly 300 million people. By the end of next year, in the most recent Barcelona talk, Elon said that they're at 500K today and are expected to reach 2-3x that by end of next year. So at 1.5M subscribers, paying $100/mo, means that the network will be generating the company: $150M revenue per month aka a FH flight worth which translates, annually, to $1.8Bn. So when you double that to 3M people by say end of 2024, that's $3.6Bn/yr in revenue.
If Starlink truly succeeds at scale aka 300M people subscribed and assuming further that SpaceX drops prices from $100/mo to $50/mo. That means that SpaceX will generate $15Bn per month in revenue and $180Bn/yr in revenue. Nearly 60% of Apple's annual revenue. The real question is whether SpaceX will spinoff Starlink into its own publicly traded company before this happens or after this happens. I suspect before, but I equally suspect that SpaceX will keep Starlink under its own shadow until 2030 minimum--which is the Mars timeline for crew (with or without NASA's own Artemis program).
So taking the 2030 timeline in mind, and extrapolating a subscriber gain of 1.5M every 2 years (Starlink started this year and Elon expects 1.5M by end of 2022)
>2022: 1.5M = 1,500,000 * 100 * 12 = 1,800,000,000.00>2024: 3M = 3,000,000 * 50 * 12 = 1,800,000,000.00>2026: 4.5M = 4,500,000 * 50 * 12 = 2,700,000,00.00>2028: 6M = 6,000,000 * 50 * 12 = 3,600,000,000.00>2030: 7.5M = 7,500,000 * 50 * 12 = 4,500,000,000.00SpaceX warchest 2030: $14.4Bn
Numbers we know today:
>Elon & Gywnne both speculate that total Starlink deployment cost will be $10Bn>Elon & Gywnne both speculate that total Starship deployment cost will be $10Bn>NASA selected Starship for HLS to the tune of $2.9Bn>SpaceX has already spent roughly $3Bn into Starship development thus far@ 1/50th% subs, Starlink covers entire Mars architecture.
