>>13390763Let 1 happiness unit be the expected increase in happiness from receiving 10 dollars.
Due to diminishing returns, 100 trillion dollars is probably not 10 trillion happiness units.
It would have to be over a billion happiness units to justify choosing the on in a billion chance.
It's hard to spend more than 100 million dollars on stuff that would actually improve your quality of life, so even with orders of magnitude more money, it is unlikely that 10 million happiness units would be exceeded by much.
Even if 100 trillion dollars were enough to increase happiness by 10 times more than 100 million, choosing the 100% chance of 10 dollars would still be 10x better. And that's assuming that diminishing returns would've have really even kicked in by the point of 100 million, even though they probably would've kicked in big-time.
