/sci/ - Science & Math » Thread #14408111

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Monty Hall problem.

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 02:28:48 2022 No.14408111 View Reply Original Report

This makes no sense to me.

Your first random pick is 33%, I get that.

Host then picks one of the other two doors and reveals a goat, this means that the other two doors are 2/3, the remaining 66%.

The question then is: do you switch? Apparently you do.

I can't make sense of that. I can't wrap my head around how the host eliminating one door somehow makes it better for you to switch. The pick between stay or switch is still 50/50?

Anonymous

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Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 02:33:33 No.14408128 Report

Quoted By: >>14408152 >>14408885 >>14411271

>the host eliminating one door

The host is eliminating one door and telling you what was behind it. From the start of the game, you have a 66% chance of selecting a goat because there's 2 goats and 1 car. When you learn that door x has a goat, in 66% percent of cases you have chosen the other goat. So switching gets you the car 66% of the time.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 02:39:47 No.14408141 Report

Quoted By: >>14412306

>>14408111
Suppose I gave you n doors to choose from. You have 1/n chance of being correct. After you choose, the host opens (n-1) doors of losers, do you switch?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 02:40:01 No.14408142 Report

Quoted By:

Imagine you're in a flooded room with 6 other people and you have a limited amount of time to solve a puzzle or else you're all electrocuted. The puzzle is: In one room there's a lightbulb that can be turned on with the flip of a switch. But, you must close the door with the bulb in it to flip the switch. After one of your compatriots is inevitably killed by testing the trap, you decide to close the door and switch A on. After what seems to be a long period of time, you switch it off, open the door and have someone touch it to see if it's hot. This means that you've increased your chance of guessing from 66% to 100%
Understand now? By the way, the situation I've laid out is totally my own idea I came up with to describe a monty hall problem, nobody has ever thought of that before so don't try to steal it.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 02:40:45 No.14408145 Report

Quoted By: >>14409075 >>14411198 >>14411271

>>14408111
If you pick the goat door first, you will switch to the car door
If you pick the car door first, you will switch to the goat door
There is a 66% chance you pick the goat door first, therefore there id a 66% chance you switch to the car door

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 02:43:36 No.14408150 Report

Quoted By: >>14408152

i give up it still doesnt make sense

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 02:44:17 No.14408152 Report

Quoted By: >>14408155

>>14408150
read this >>14408128 you dumb enword its all you need

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 02:45:20 No.14408155 Report

Quoted By: >>14408167 >>14408258

>>14408152
and im saying i read that and i still dont get it so im just dumb and i give up.

i thought i had a decent grasp on math.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 02:50:09 No.14408167 Report

Quoted By: >>14408230 >>14408403 >>14411198

>>14408155
Assume you pick door 1.
If car is in door 1, the host opens door 2 or 3 to reveal a goat. If you switch, you lose.
If car is in door 2, the host MUST open door 3 because otherwise he'd reveal the car. If you switch, you win.
If car is in door 3, the host MUST open door 2. If you switch, you win.

2/3 of the time, if you switch, you win.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 03:03:56 No.14408190 Report

Quoted By: >>14408192 >>14408968

The host telling you there is a goat gives you no new information. Consider 99 goats, 1 car, and 100 doors. If you pick a door, and the host tells you there are at least 98 goats in the remaining doors, that is something obviously true. There MUST be 98 goats at minimum, because there's only 1 car. Simplify it to the 3 door scenario and it shows.

Another way to think of it is this: There are 1 trillion doors. You pick one, the host eliminates all except one. Do you think it's more likely that you managed to guess the door correctly on your first try, making it a 50/50? No, it would still be a 1 in a trillion chance. By allowing you to "switch", the host is effectively allowing you to pick all other doors. If you were given the choice to pick 2 doors or 1 door, you would obviously choose 1 door. Just knowing one door has a goat does not change your decision, because you already know one of the two had a goat.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 03:05:12 No.14408192 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408190
>If you were given the choice to pick 2 doors or 1 door, you would obviously choose 1 door.
Sorry, I mistyped. You would choose two doors.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 03:06:27 No.14408195 Report

Quoted By:

The host will always open a door with a goat so by switching you'll end up with the opposite of what you initially picked. What's the probability that you initially picked a goat?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 03:20:28 No.14408230 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408167
/thread

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 03:31:54 No.14408258 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408155

the important thing is that the host does not open a random door but always the empty or goat. So switching is like picking two doors from the start since if the prize is behind either of the two doors you win. If you stick with your original pick you only have a 1/3 chance of picking the prize.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 03:55:35 No.14408326 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408111
Think of it as a game with 100 doors. You pick one door, and then the host then opens 98 doors, leaving one door you can switch to. Would you switch?

Another way to think of it, the host opening a door is irrelevant. If he tells you to pick a door, and then says you can then switch to BOTH of the other doors, would you do it?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 04:16:58 No.14408403 Report

Quoted By: >>14408677

>>14408167
i dont get it
ANY door i pick, the fucker picks a goat instead.

So the fucker is always showing me where one goat is, therefore my possibility every single time to pick a car or a goat should be 50 %.

on a side note if i pick the door why doesnt the fucker open that door (lol jk)

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 04:19:03 No.14408410 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408111

There are 2 goats and one car. Or in other words, 2 possibilities of goat, and one possibility of car in your first choice. It is highly probable that your first choice is a goat. This is the key point.

Thus, when the host removes one of the goats as a possibility in the next choice, it is highly probable that the last door is the car.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 04:41:28 No.14408474 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408111
>Your first random pick is 33%, I get that.
Exactly. Your first pick was likely incorrect, so when given the opportunity to switch to the last remaining door you should take it.

Just imagine the problem with 100 doors. You pick one, 99% chance you picked a goat. Host opens 98 goat doors and leaves yours and one other closed. Should you switch? Chances are you picked a goat door and the car is behind the last remaining closed door

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 05:11:54 No.14408560 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408111
>I can't make sense of that. I can't wrap my head around how the host eliminating one door somehow makes it better for you to switch.
Because the host knows which door has the goat/prize and he bases his choice on that. So observing which door he chooses tells you something about both the door he picks AND the one he avoids.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 06:28:46 No.14408662 Report

Quoted By:

The main mental stumbling block people have with this thought experiment is that they focus on the possibility that they might have picked the car on their first choice, instead of the probability that they picked a goat, and thus a kind of FOMO instinct kicks in, where they don't want to 'risk' the possibility of missing the car by switching away, even though that's not how the scenario is constructed at all.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 06:37:32 No.14408677 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408403
the guy you replied to showed you the probability isn't 50%. there are three scenarios, for any door you pick. if you switch 2/3 times you will get the car. you can see the outcomes right in his post, there's nothing more to be said about it

Anonymous

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Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 07:40:47 No.14408761 Report

Quoted By:

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 08:10:30 No.14408799 Report

Quoted By:

Scale the problem up to see why the solution ("switching is correct") is what it is, then scale it back down.
You have 1,000,000 doors. 1 prize, 999,999 goats.
You pick 1 door. Host opens 999.998 doors, revealing 999,998 goats. What are the chances you correctly picked the right door? Those odds didn't change because of new information you've gained since then, it's the same 1-in-a-million that it was before. However, after the new information is gained and you have the choice to switch, what are the odds that the remaining other single door has the prize? 999,999 in a million. Switch.

Scale it down. 10,000 doors. 9,999 goats.
1 in 10,000 you get it on the first try, 99.99% chance you got it wrong. Switch.

Scale it down. 10 doors, 9 goats.
1 in 10. 90% chance you were wrong. Switch.

Scale it down. 3 doors, 2 goats.
1 in 3. 66.66% chance. Switch.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 09:16:54 No.14408854 Report

Quoted By: >>14410249 >>14410289

>>14408111
if you know python. I made a simulation of this problem, it's very cool. you see that program does the problem 10000 times and one that switches always has close to 50% success rate and the other one has close to 33%. I'd explain it like this: when you are choosing for the first time you have a chance of 33% of succeeding. then one of the doors is revealed. and you have 2 doors left. you can switch or stay. first one has 33% of succeeding because you chose it from 3 doors, so if you don't switch you have 33% of getting the prize, but if you switch you have 50% because you are choosing from 2 doors.

hope this helps

Anonymous

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Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 09:33:16 No.14408870 Report

Quoted By: >>14414234

Imagine there are 100 doors
You pick one
The host opens 98 doors then asks if you'd like to switch
Here's the thing, in every single case where you don't pick the car on your guess, switching guarantees you get the car. In reality this means you've got a 99/100 chance of getting the car so long as you switch.
Lets now go back to the original case, 3 doors.
Imagine the doors are A, B and C, and:
>A: has a car
>B: has a goat
>C: has a goat.
Obviously in this scenario if you don't switch you'll have a 1/3 chance of getting the car, but lets examine what happens if you switch
>you pick A
The host opens either B or C, and you switch to whichever he doesn't open.
You get a goat
>you pick B
The host opens C and you switch to A.
You get a car
>you pick C
The host opens B and you switch to A.
You get a car
In 2/3 possible scenarios switching nets you a car. You might be tempted/tricked into thinking it's a 50/50, but your choice was already made when there were 3 choices, where staying is a 1/3 and switching is 2/3

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 09:36:15 No.14408872 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408111
Its 50/50

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 09:38:21 No.14408873 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408111
Your friend throws a dice, the probability of six is 1/6. Then he tells you that the number is even, the probability of six is now 1/3. The probability "changed" because you were provided additional information.
The host opening a door provides you with additional information which "changes" the probability from 1/3 : 1/3 : 1/3 to 2/3 : 1/3 : 0.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 09:53:59 No.14408885 Report

Quoted By: >>14408893 >>14409135

>>14408128
isn't that the gambler's fallacy?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 10:00:29 No.14408893 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408885
no, why?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 11:20:08 No.14408961 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408111
>this means that the other two doors are 2/3, the remaining 66%.
No. There's 100% chance the car is in the remaining two doors. What are you talking about? There's a 1/3 chance the door you chose has the car and a 2/3 chance the other door has the car, because Monty revealed it's not in the other door you didn't choose.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 11:24:45 No.14408968 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408190
>The host telling you there is a goat gives you no new information.
The host didn't just tell you there is a goat, he reveals where it is. So that tells you the car is most likely in the remaining door you didn't choose.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 11:25:17 No.14408969 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408111
If you got it wrong the first time and you switch, you win. What are the odds that you got it wrong the first time? 2/3. 2/3 times switching means you win. It's that simple. We don't need to have this thread ever again.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 12:39:10 No.14409075 Report

Quoted By: >>14409125

>>14408145
Holy shit now that makes sense, why the fuck doesn't anyone just say that!

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 13:03:06 No.14409120 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408111
The host ALWAYS picks a door with a goat, NEVER with a car.
Do you get it now?
Perhaps draw an event tree. There's a clear imbalance.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 13:04:43 No.14409125 Report

Quoted By:

>>14409075
We do, but brainlettery is stronger.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 13:08:42 No.14409129 Report

Quoted By: >>14409130

>>14408111
Imagine doing it with only two doors and it will make more sense.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 13:09:12 No.14409130 Report

Quoted By:

>>14409129
Imagine doing it with 1 door and you will gain 15 IQ points.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 13:13:19 No.14409135 Report

Quoted By: >>14409139

>>14408885
>isn't that the gambler's fallacy?
Gambler's fallacy is thinking if you see lots of one kind of result that you're "due" for seeing the other kind when really random independent outputs don't have memories and don't switch to a different kind of result just to even things out.
Monty Hall problem in contrast is an exploitation of the knowledge the host has and the way the host is effectively forced to only behave a certain way for the game to remain coherent.
If the host were to show you a door with the car behind it that would defeat the purpose of the game by giving you the answer. So you know he'll never do that. This leaves you with the fact he will only ever show you a goat door.
When you pick a door in the beginning you have nothing to go on so all 3 options are equally likely (1/3 chance). And if you stay with that first pick your chance stays at 1/3. If you change though the host's choice for eliminating a door is not random like your choice was. He knows the answer and he picks a goat door necessarily. So the one he doesn't pick can only be a goat if you guessed right the first time and both doors you didn't pick are what he had to choose from. The chances of that (you being right the first time) are only 1/3, and the chances of you being wrong the first time are 2/3. And if you were wrong the first time and the host eliminates the only remaining goat door he can that means the 2/3 chance you were initially wrong ALWAYS results in the door the host didn't eliminate having the car. So choosing to switch gets you the car 2/3 times.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 13:15:07 No.14409139 Report

Quoted By:

>>14409135
>the host is effectively forced to only behave a certain way for the game to remain coherent.
Yeah it's this. He can never open the car door, so his choice of which to open for you cannot be truly random. You can exploit this.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 14:27:25 No.14409291 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408111
Here are the four possible scenarios as (prize door, picked door, goat door) triples (there are 8 more but they're just re-labelings of these):
(1,1,2),(1,1,3),(1,2,3),(1,3,2)

It's important to realize that these scenarios are not equiprobable. There's a 1/3 probability of selecting the correct door on the first try and then Monty picks either 2 or 3 with equal probability, so the first two scenarios have probability 1/6 and the second two scenarios have probability 1/3.

Not switching gives a win in the first two scenarios, with a probability 1/3.

Switching gives a win in the last two scenarios, with probability 2/3.

The simplest explanation is that in 2 of 3 equiprobable cases (when you picked the wrong door) Monty makes switching a certain win. In the other case (you picked the right door) switching is a certain loss. In other words, if you choose to switch you will win with probability 2/3 and if you choose not to switch you will lose with probability 2/3.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 14:32:36 No.14409308 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408111
If you switch, you win if you pick a goat.
If you don't switch, you win if you don't pick a goat.
Since the probability of picking a goat is higher, you should switch.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 19:58:05 No.14410249 Report

Quoted By: >>14410339

>>14408854
>if you know python. I made a simulation of this problem

I think there is something wrong with this script but I'm not sure what. I believe The result of not-switching should be 33% (1/3) chance of winning and switching should be 66%. (2/3).

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 20:11:25 No.14410289 Report

Quoted By: >>14410339

>>14408854
Your results are wrong and your program doesn't make sense. In your program, the host just opens one of the two goat doors, without considering that one of them may have been chosen by the contestant.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 20:22:53 No.14410317 Report

Quoted By: >>14410351

its 50/50 no matter what you say you fucking nerds

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 20:31:36 No.14410339 Report

Quoted By: >>14410346 >>14410408

>>14410249
>>14410289
>t. brainlets

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 20:32:40 No.14410346 Report

Quoted By:

>>14410339
How did grow up to be such a mouth-breathing mongoloid? Both your results and your program are very obviously wrong.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 20:33:48 No.14410351 Report

Quoted By:

>>14410317
This

Also this:
Scenario 1 pick right no change
>50/50
Scenario 2 pick right change
>50/50
Scenario 3 pick wrong no change
>50/50
Scenario 4 pick wrong change
>50/50

50 + 50 + 50 + 50 /4
50 + 50 + 50 + 50 /4
>50/50

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 20:48:58 No.14410408 Report

Quoted By:

>>14410339

there is a 99% chance an ad hominem poster is wrong.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 22:11:30 No.14410717 Report

Quoted By:

Its 100% or 0%. You either get it with 100% or you don't get it with 0%.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 22:21:06 No.14410761 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408111
The first door you choose has a 1/3 chance of being correct. If the host allowed you to open both of the other doors at once, you would have a 2/3 of being correct. Opening a goat door essentially lets you choose to open both of other doors.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 22:25:23 No.14410788 Report

Quoted By:

Let's say that you pick door (2) in picrel. Now the probability of door (1) having the prize is 1/3 obviously. Then, when the host reveals that door (3) has a goat, this impacts the probability of door (1). It used to be 1/3 but now it's 2/3.

You ask how can the probability change. But here's the thing. Probability of something depends on what you know about the situation. And when the goat is revealed, that gives you additional knowledge that you didn't have before. If you pretend that the probabilities of door (1) and door (2) having the prize were 50/50 after the revelation, then the probability of your original choice would have been also 50% from the start. But since you didn't know anything of any of the doors, they would have all been 50% each which adds up to 150% which breaks the math. You see the problem?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 22:43:54 No.14410869 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408111
It's ultimately because of quantum entanglement

Anonymous

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Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 23:08:31 No.14410979 Report

Quoted By: >>14411024

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 23:20:37 No.14411024 Report

Quoted By:

>>14410979
if i do this 1000 times would i win 666 and lose 333 times, or would i have 50/50 chance 1000 times
>not even meme
>also blindfolded so i dont get any more information

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Apr 2022 23:58:48 No.14411143 Report

Quoted By: >>14411164

The thing is, you need to take into account whether your own choice and the judge's choice interact. Basically, if your own choice didn't affect which door the judge reveals, and he reveals a goat, then I think the probability of the doors left would each have 50% probability of having the car. It would be essentially the same as randomly opening two doors first one of which is a goat. Even in the extrapolated case when there's a million doors it would still be 50/50. If the judge just by an incredible accident happened to open all the doors except two which have a goat and a car, then those two doors would have an equal probability of having the car. But that's not really how the problem works. Your own choice interacts with the judge's choice such that if you pick a door that has a goat, the judge sees that and purposefully opens the door which has the other goat. That way it would be better to change what you originally picked.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 20 Apr 2022 00:06:45 No.14411164 Report

Quoted By: >>14411186

>>14411143
>Judge opens million -2 doors
Yea sounds 50/50

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 20 Apr 2022 00:11:18 No.14411186 Report

Quoted By: >>14412316

>>14411164
It would be 50/50 IF your choice didn't affect which doors the judge reveals. It would be like picking door number two and then accidentally opening 999998 goats.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 20 Apr 2022 00:14:37 No.14411198 Report

Quoted By: >>14411227

>>14408145
>>14408167
I feel like I grasp it for a few seconds, then it's gone again. Been reading about this problem for years, it's always the fucking same. God I'm dumb.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 20 Apr 2022 00:25:00 No.14411227 Report

Quoted By:

>>14411198
Think of it this way. When you pick one of the three doors, you know for sure that whichever door you picked, it has 1/3 winning chance. Now why would the probability change? If you know for sure that the judge will never reveal the door that has the car, then your door must always have that same 1/3 winning probability. So when the judge reveals the goat, your door is still 1/3 so the other door must be 2/3.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 20 Apr 2022 00:39:15 No.14411271 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408128
>>14408145
Yes but since the host most likely isn't a dumb person he probably only do this trick when you choose a door with a car

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 20 Apr 2022 00:40:42 No.14411276 Report

Quoted By: >>14411331

>>14408111
They way I grasp it is that the two door choices you didn't pick get merged into one after the goat is revealed. So it's not just your door against another door but against the remaining doors. You have a 2/3 chance of picking goat door so it's more likely that he reveals the other goat versus you picking the car off the bat. Imagine if there were 100 doors with 1 car and 99 goat doors. You pick one and the 98 other goats are revealed. Do you switch then? Are the odds narrowed from 1/100 to 1/2 by staying?
>I can't wrap my head around how the host eliminating one door somehow makes it better for you to switch
Is it more likely you chose a goat and he reveals the other goat or you chose the car and he reveals either goat 1 or goat 2?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 20 Apr 2022 01:02:38 No.14411331 Report

Quoted By:

>>14411276
It's a matter of whether your choice affects which one of the remaining doors are revealed. If the judge always reveals a goat then switching is profitable. But if he reveals the goat randomly then it doesn't matter if you switch or not.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 20 Apr 2022 01:28:28 No.14411406 Report

Quoted By:

i don't switch because in the chance that the one that I originally picked has the car and I switch, i look like a fool on live television.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 20 Apr 2022 02:34:45 No.14411643 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408111
Think in terms of composition.
Let x = 3
y = x / 3
z = x - y

y represents the car.
z represents the goats.

as the host opens a door, the value of x decreases to 2.

If you switch, you reevaluate y and z.
y’ = x / 3 = 2/3
z’ = x - y -1 = 2 - 2/3 - 1 = 1 /3

Not switching is equal to the ratio y:z.
Switching is equal to the inversion of y:z, which is z:y.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 20 Apr 2022 06:11:20 No.14412116 Report

Quoted By:

Stop thinking about 3 doors.
Adjust the problem to a million "doors".

There is a lottery with 1 million tickets and 1 prize.
One of those tickets is the winner.
I give you one ticket.
I keep a box with the other 999,999,999 tickets.

What chance do you have with that one ticket?
What chance do I have with the box of 999,999,999 tickets?
What if I offered, right there and then, the chance to swap your 1 ticket with my box of 999,999,999 tickets?
You take it, right?

So you have your 1 ticket, and I have my box of 999,999,999 tickets, and now I start "Monty Haul"ing. I -know- which ticket in my box is the winner, but I start to build the tension. I reach into the box and pull out a dud. "It's not this ticket," I say. Then I do it again, and pull out another dud, "It's not this ticket, either," I say.

And I keep doing this for 999,999,998 tickets in my box, because I can deliberately avoid the winning ticket because I know which one it is. Now I've got a pile of losing tickets thrown away behind me, one ticket in my box, and one ticket in your had.

Do you suddenly think you have a 50% chance of having the winning ticket? Or are you going to want to switch to the ticket in my box? The box that I was deliberately able to empty, ticket by ticket, because I know where the winning ticket is.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 20 Apr 2022 08:19:52 No.14412306 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408141
This is what helped me to understand this problem intuitively. With 3 doors it seems kinda odd, but if you pick a door out of 1000 and the host opens 998 of them it's more apparent why you should switch

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 20 Apr 2022 08:30:35 No.14412316 Report

Quoted By:

>>14411186

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 20 Apr 2022 22:21:28 No.14414039 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408111
I fucking hate bayesian cultists so much

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 20 Apr 2022 23:47:31 No.14414234 Report

Quoted By:

>>14408870
pretty much this, the most intuitive way to understand the problem is by increasing the number of doors.

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