>>14346325a brainlet might observe a roll of a 6 sided dice 10 times and say there is a (1/6)^10 chance that all rolls are the same number
but the fact is that it's 50/50
brainlets observe a positive or negative result happening multiple times and attribute it to some greater or lesser chance respectively
but the fact is this sequence of events was also 50/50 and they're just observing the affirming possibility