>>14251347Oh shit no no no I feel like even if it's WAY slower than musk is promising, starship will be reused an absolute ton. Will be cheap. And will have pretty rapid turnaround times (gut feeling: but I feel like the first ~7ish years will have slower turnaround times but it will increase year by year and the first fly-restack-fly in one day will happen 4 years after the first maiden orbital flight)
It will do a ton when it comes to $/kg and what you can put in orbit. But at the same time I believe that other rockets simply won't be eradicated. Gunnerson is really confident Neutron will be generating a profit. Assuming Relativity isn't a scam and they can have success with Terran 1 and move on to Terran R rapidly they could theoretically have a spot.
In summary I think Starship will be a game changer, but not a monopoly. 10-20T to orbit will still exist especially for companies that can optimize as much as spacex has shown is possible. There will always be constellations and payloads that want to launch out of the US but don't want to do it with spacex because of competition. There will be a bottleneck with payload cost and not everyone will need 1000 cubic meters of space.
And yes, one day it will become cheap across the board to build 1000 cubic meter paylaods. Lenses will go down, instruments will go down, all that jazz. Starship is helping to justify doing this. A lot of people say Starship will be the "model T of rockets" but in reality I think a better comparison is that SpaceX is to rockets as Ford was to modern automobiles. They have shown everyone else what path to follow and anything that is going to make it is going to have to emulate spacex ways of doing things
