>>14226251Orbit in 2022 will happen if certain conditions are met.
Option A, the simplest one:
B4/S20 is not scrapped
Positive environmental review.
No engine replacements after static fire (I think we can safely assume they're not producing them anymore).
Unlikely.
Option B, things get a bit tricky here.
First of all, they're moving onto Raptor 2 and the whole test campaign until now has been done on Raptor 1. I don't know how much different it is from Raptor 1, but it may require starting all over again. After all, it still tends to melt itself, as Elon said, they haven't fully figured it out yet. That would mean more static fires and more hops. More hops obviously delay the launch by months and make orbit in this year unlikely.
Second, we have no idea which stack will be orbital. If they go with more hops, it'll probably be something like B11/S30. And again, it'll take time to build all those vehicles.
Third, obvious one, positive environmental review.
Option C
Basically the same as Option B but does not require another testing campaign. That implies the increased chance for orbital launch in 2022.
Option D
This one basically boils down to an Environmental Impact Statement as a result of the environmental review. If it happens, SpaceX moves to Kennedy and we're obviously not going to see the orbital launch this year.
I think Option B is the most plausible, and orbital launch is still possible in 2022, if they pick up the pace. Launch site is almost ready anyway, and they could focus purely on ship building & testing.
