>>14182514>conservative estimateIf their customer base remains at similar, 30% capacity usage, then we'll see 216K NA users by end of this year. 216K x $100 x 12 = $260 million a year revenue from NA customers.
>realistic ramp upIf their customer capacity ramp up jumps to 50%, thats 360K NA customers and $432 million yearly revenue.
>optimisticIf they ramp to 70% capacity, thats 504K NA users, thats $605M a year revenue.
Each sats cost ~250K x 3000 = $750 million.
Each launch has ~55 sat capacity, so thats ~54 launches. Each launch costs ~$30M internally, so that's 30M x 54 = $1.62 billion cost.
Total cost of 3000 sats launched is ~$2.4 billion. $605M * 4 years = ~$2.4 billion. Sats have ~5 year life span. SpaceX is making break even money with US customers alone. Over that 4 years, rest of the world will contribute ~480 M dollars. Half of that will likely go towards operations cost. Leaving them with a $240M profit over the next 4 years.
