>>14135709> if I move from an area with 5 homicides per 100k to 40/100k, does it mean I am 8 times more likely to get murdered?technically speaking, yes
>If it is the number of homicides per year, what is the probability of get murdered on any given day?.00011%
>Does it increase with time?no bc the fact that you have not been murdered yesterday doesn't influence the probability of you being murdered today
>Should demographics of the victims be considered, life styles, etc?for rare events like being murdered, absolutey yes. a number as little as 40/100,000 is easily influenced by extreme cases. while the probability is nearly zero for the vast majority of the people, they are very high for very few individuals, most likely criminals and gang members
>What I stay home the entire year, then my probability is zero?yes but unless you are not involved in crime the probability is still so close to zero that it's impossible to compute the difference between a normal outgoing person and a recluse
