So, what does /sci/ think of Neil Ferguson’s predictive modelling skills? Is he based?

I’m asking because he predicted 1.1 million COVID deaths in the USA between April and August 2020 under the best circumstances with lockdowns in place and with treatments available. Under the worst circumstances, he predicted 2.2 million deaths within the same timeframe.

Here were some of his assumptions guys:

>zero pre-existing immunity against infection, everyone equally susceptible
>high R0 (2.6)
>high average infection-fatality ratio (0.9%), calculated based on cases from China
>high age-stratified hospitalization rates
>asymptomatic individuals are only 50% less infectious than symptomatic individuals
>hospitals completely overwhelmed within two weeks

So, what do we think anons? Based?

https://archive.fo/t8zOh