>>14012597> Omicron is 4x infectious,You need to clarify what 4x infectious means. Like if the virus becomes twice as infectious, that doesnt mean twice as many people will get it. Like if there is a new virus that has a reproduction rate of 3, it wont stay at R=3. Cases will gradually decline, and people will gradually get immunity and until the reproduction rate is 1.
But then suppose that you started at R=3, and you got to herd immunity, which would be 2/3rd of the population I believe. So now, at herd immunity, R=1, and then a new variant comes. Say the new variant doubles R, and now R=2. Then half of the remaining 1/3rd of uninfected people will become infected. So the first variant infected 2/3rds of everyone, and the new variant, with twice the reproductive rate only infects 1/6th of everyone. Obviously it couldnt infect 2 * 2/3rds of everyone, because that is over 100% of people.
