>>13974071They'll probably do the lunar manned program like they did the manned LEO program, i.e. progressively test and iterate over many years.
(1) Purely robotic craft (Fanhui shi weixing)
(2) Uncrewed tests of crew vehicles (Shenzhou 1-4)
(3) Crewed "flag and footprints" missions (Shenzhou 5,6,7)
(4) First generation single module test habitat and uncrewed rendezvous/precision landing tests (Tiangong-1, Shenzhou 8)
(5) Sending crew for brief visits to test habitat (Shenzhou 9,10)
(6) Second generation test habitat with crew staying for longer durations (Tiangong-2, Shenzhou 11)
(7) Modular, permanently crewed base (Tiangong, Shenzhou 12+)
So CZ-5DY first flight in 2026 and first crew landing in 2030 probably means a "Barmingrad" style permanent base wouldn't happen until the 2040s (depending on how much money they spend on the project).
