/sci/ - Science & Math » Thread #13948952

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Anonymous Sat 11 Dec 02:53:03 2021 No.13948952 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>13948955 >>13948959 >>13949125 >>13949264 >>13952201 >>13952207 >>13952210 >>13952226 >>13952271 >>13952411 >>13952659 >>13957924 >>13957950 >>13958867

What does /sci/ think about the Monty Hall Problem?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 11 Dec 2021 02:54:27 No.13948955 Report

Quoted By:

>>13948952
I want a goat!

Anonymous

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Anonymous Sat 11 Dec 2021 02:55:26 No.13948959 Report

Quoted By:

>>13948952
very few can understand conditional probability.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 11 Dec 2021 03:53:37 No.13949125 Report

Quoted By: >>13952668 >>13958043

>>13948952
People overvalue intuition because people are lazy in general. So intuition says that because you have two options and the initial choice was random and doesn't matter it must be 1/2. At least that how most people see it quickly. They are right in the sense that in reality the situation is fixed so they don't think about it in terms of experiments, i.e. many games over a period of time. If you think in the latter you stop seeing it as a mystical thing like the choice influencing the game but just as the possibilities you have. And then you realize welp if I always change after they opened the second door, I always win if my first choice was a goat. Because there are more goats than cars, by always changing I win more times. IT'S NOT A FUCKING PARADOX JUST BECAUSE YOU ARE TOO LAZY TO THINK ABOUT IT FOR MORE THAN 5 SECONDS.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 11 Dec 2021 03:57:36 No.13949129 Report

Quoted By: >>13949212 >>13949243 >>13955022

literally just think
if you chose the right door initially (33% of chance), the dude will open one of the wrong doors. changing the door guarantees that you're going to lose
if you chose the wrong door initially (66% of chance), the dude is going to open the other wrong door. changing the door in this case guarantees your win
since you're more likely to have selected the wrong answer, you're better off changing the door

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 11 Dec 2021 04:05:39 No.13949148 Report

Quoted By:

I think it's depressing how many people genuinely can't wrap their head around it. I mean, it reminds me of high school physics and seeing fairly smart kids' heads short circuit when trying to into electromagnetism, except with such an incredibly mundane situation.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 11 Dec 2021 04:37:59 No.13949212 Report

Quoted By: >>13949243

>>13949129
>66% of chance
67%
truncators gtfo

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 11 Dec 2021 04:47:10 No.13949243 Report

Quoted By:

>>13949129
>>13949212
>truncators
>rounders

literally just use the probability interval
.666...

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 11 Dec 2021 04:56:20 No.13949264 Report

Quoted By: >>13949311 >>13958312

>>13948952
Statistics is invalid as a field of study and there is no such thing as random chance and the obsession over this strawman model exposes the academic community as the bunch of drooling midwits they are

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 11 Dec 2021 05:17:33 No.13949311 Report

Quoted By: >>13952198

>>13949264
Randomness is a way to model stuff that you don't know how it works

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 11 Dec 2021 23:06:06 No.13952198 Report

Quoted By: >>13958307

>>13949311
Or when probabilities are known, but modeling something perfectly is impractical.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Sat 11 Dec 2021 23:07:22 No.13952201 Report

Quoted By:

>>13948952
What have I done? >>13952188

Anonymous

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Anonymous Sat 11 Dec 2021 23:09:11 No.13952207 Report

Quoted By: >>13952265

>>13948952
Yes

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 11 Dec 2021 23:09:47 No.13952210 Report

Quoted By: >>13952401

>>13948952

I think Monty Hall is easier to understand if you have one million doors in the beginning. Everyone gets that your first door will have an extremely small probability.

Now you have 999.998 Jokers to dismiss wrong doors. Obviously now you have a very good starting point now since you made your life a lot easier and picking the last door from the other set would be a good idea.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 11 Dec 2021 23:12:42 No.13952216 Report

Quoted By:

Oh no, I don't want to think about this again
If you look at the scenarios which you have, 1. there's a goat under your door and a car in the other door, 2. there's a goat under your door and a car in the other door, 3. there's a car under your door and a goat in the other door, you're better off switching cause in 2/3 of these scenarios you're getting the car instead of the goat

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 11 Dec 2021 23:15:57 No.13952226 Report

Quoted By:

>>13948952
It's good for exposing utter brainlets. I don't know why anyone else would get it wrong. You only stand to lose from switching if you initially picked the car, that is 1/3 times. The other 2/3 times, you win.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Sat 11 Dec 2021 23:30:56 No.13952265 Report

Quoted By: >>13957437

>>13952207
needs to include 1=.999999 somehow

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 11 Dec 2021 23:32:36 No.13952271 Report

Quoted By:

>>13948952
Oh wow, finally a new original scientific thread.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Sun 12 Dec 2021 00:11:31 No.13952372 Report

Quoted By: >>13952408 >>13952589

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 12 Dec 2021 00:18:43 No.13952401 Report

Quoted By:

>>13952210
>I think Monty Hall is easier to understand
when it's seen as two groups of doors, as in op's pic.
After that it's not too hard to figure out variations: for example, there are 23 doors, you select six, then Monty reveals 4 from the remaining 17 - should you switch?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 12 Dec 2021 00:21:14 No.13952408 Report

Quoted By: >>13952489

>>13952372
why does the circled group change from 2/3 to 1/2?
protip: it doesn't

Anonymous

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Anonymous Sun 12 Dec 2021 00:21:48 No.13952409 Report

Quoted By:

No, I will not elaborate further.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 12 Dec 2021 00:22:15 No.13952411 Report

Quoted By: >>13957451

>>13948952
what i think of it? i think there is LITERALLY at least one thread about it open at any one time. i think it should gets its own category when you select for reasons to report a post, thats what i think about the monty hall problem.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Sun 12 Dec 2021 00:54:11 No.13952489 Report

Quoted By: >>13952501 >>13952505

>>13952408
>the circles door(s) have a constant probability because reasons
explain this

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 12 Dec 2021 00:59:08 No.13952501 Report

Quoted By:

>>13952489
1) you select one box out of three
2) the tho other boxes are sent to chins
3) probability that car is in china is 2/3
4) one non-car box in china is opened
5) probability that car is in china is still 2/3

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 12 Dec 2021 01:00:36 No.13952505 Report

Quoted By: >>13952653

>>13952489
1) you select one box out of three
2) the two other boxes are sent to china
3) probability that the car is in china is 2/3
4) one non-car box in china is opened
5) probability that car is in china is still 2/3

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 12 Dec 2021 01:24:03 No.13952589 Report

Quoted By:

>>13952372
The increase in probability that the money will be in one of the two unchosen doors comes from the host having to reveal (and thus remove) a goat from one of those doors. Whereas there is no such requirement that he remove a goat from your door.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 12 Dec 2021 01:45:34 No.13952653 Report

Quoted By: >>13952735

>>13952505
>one unopened box here, one unopened box in china
>50/50

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 12 Dec 2021 01:47:20 No.13952659 Report

Quoted By: >>13952824

>>13948952
obviously you stand instead of changing your answer so you can get a pet goat

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 12 Dec 2021 01:49:05 No.13952668 Report

Quoted By:

>>13949125
this

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 12 Dec 2021 02:15:01 No.13952735 Report

Quoted By:

>>13952653
lol retard

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 12 Dec 2021 02:53:51 No.13952824 Report

Quoted By:

>>13952659
This, I already have a car and its shit.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 12 Dec 2021 06:17:27 No.13953174 Report

Quoted By:

It's a dumb trick question. If there are 100 doors choosing to switch when just one door is open is gonna make little difference. If there are 100 doors and 98 are opened onviously switching is the right choice. Literally just a trick question taking advantage of these two intuitions when it is less obvious which is right.

El Arcón

El Arcón Sun 12 Dec 2021 06:49:31 No.13953217 Report

Quoted By: >>13954719 >>13955010 >>13959767

I think the real Monty Hall problem is that the statistics on the show didn't match the theoretical statistics.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 12 Dec 2021 17:43:20 No.13954719 Report

Quoted By: >>13955247

>>13953217
How many times was it played

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 12 Dec 2021 19:04:10 No.13955010 Report

Quoted By:

>>13953217
Where did you find the actual results on the show?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 12 Dec 2021 19:08:53 No.13955022 Report

Quoted By:

>>13949129
You know I didn't really get the problem, but accepted the solution because probability is fucking magic.

However you have just given the best argument I have ever seen for it to be as it is. Thank you.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 12 Dec 2021 20:19:39 No.13955247 Report

Quoted By: >>13955288

>>13954719
something in the neighborhood of infinity

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 12 Dec 2021 20:32:32 No.13955288 Report

Quoted By:

>>13955247
Tooker, is that really you??

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 08:14:04 No.13957437 Report

Quoted By: >>13957507 >>13957899 >>13958654

>>13952265
What number is between .99999.... and 1?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 08:22:51 No.13957451 Report

Quoted By: >>13957484

>>13952411
Monty hall>vaxshittery>Twum thread

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 08:38:12 No.13957484 Report

Quoted By:

>>13957451
based Full Monty poster

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 08:51:22 No.13957507 Report

Quoted By:

>>13957437
There isnt one

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 11:47:27 No.13957899 Report

Quoted By:

>>13957437
.999999...

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 12:05:50 No.13957924 Report

Quoted By: >>13957936

>>13948952
The host has information about what's behind the doors. When he opens a door that he knows doesn't have the prize behind it, he shares information with you that you didn't have while making your initial choice. Now that you have more information, you can make a better guess.

I think part of what confuses people is the semantic difference between "The host opens a door that he knows has no prize behind it" and "The host opens a door and there's no prize behind it."

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 12:12:06 No.13957936 Report

Quoted By: >>13957958

>>13957924
>I think part of what confuses people is the semantic difference between "The host opens a door that he knows has no prize behind it" and "The host opens a door and there's no prize behind it."
Makes absolutely no difference.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 12:21:41 No.13957950 Report

Quoted By: >>13957955 >>13957963

>>13948952
Monty Hall is a fancy trick question, and changing your door has no real-world impact on whether or not you get the prize.
Your odds are and always have been 1/3 regardless of a door being revealed.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 12:23:00 No.13957955 Report

Quoted By:

>>13957950
based retard

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 12:23:53 No.13957958 Report

Quoted By: >>13957987 >>13958016 >>13958853

>>13957936
Incorrect. If the host randomly chooses a door then there is only a 1/2 chance he opens a goat door if you chose a goat. This means the chance of choosing a goat and the other goat being revealed is equal to the chance of choosing a car and a goat being revealed (1/3), which means switching gives you no advantage since it's equally likely you chose a goat or a car.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 12:27:11 No.13957963 Report

Quoted By: >>13957987 >>13958853

>>13957950
>2/3 chance you chose a goat
>if you chose a goat, switching is guaranteed to get you the car
>but your chance of getting the car if you switch somehow drops to 1/3

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 12:38:00 No.13957987 Report

Quoted By: >>13958853

>>13957963
You are a midwit.
See
>>13957958

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 12:48:37 No.13958016 Report

Quoted By: >>13958868

>>13957958
Irrelevant. It is given that he happened to reveal a goat. Whether this was intentional or random is irrelevant.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 12:56:29 No.13958035 Report

Quoted By:

>there are still fuckwits in this very thread who do not understand this problem

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 12:57:40 No.13958037 Report

Quoted By:

It's clearly 50 50

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 12:58:51 No.13958043 Report

Quoted By: >>13958052

>>13949125
If it's not 50/50 show it experimentally

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 13:02:51 No.13958052 Report

Quoted By: >>13958173

>>13958043
People have posted simulations of this problem a billion times but retards like you can't understand how and why simulations work, either.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 13:55:16 No.13958173 Report

Quoted By: >>13958180

>>13958052
Explain to me how many options for have to select between after one door has been opened
Explain to me how exactly you're taking for this bullshit

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 13:58:15 No.13958180 Report

Quoted By: >>13958192

>>13958173
>Explain to me how many options for have to select between after one door has been opened
Your options are swap (2/3 chance of winning) vs. don't swap (1/3 chance of winning).

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 14:01:34 No.13958192 Report

Quoted By: >>13958321

>>13958180
IT GOES FROM 3 CHOICES TO 2 CHOICES
YOU FUCKING CHUD

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 14:47:38 No.13958307 Report

Quoted By:

>>13952198
that's why no one says they can model anything perfectly dumbass

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 14:48:47 No.13958312 Report

Quoted By:

>>13949264
>t. failed introductory stats

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 14:52:50 No.13958321 Report

Quoted By:

>>13958192
exactly, we're calculating two dice rolls for the total probability

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 16:43:33 No.13958654 Report

Quoted By:

>>13957437
.999... = 1-?
1-? < 1-(?/2)
for any given state of ?

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 17:44:27 No.13958853 Report

Quoted By:

>>13957987
>>>13957963 (You) #
>You are a midwit.
>See
>>>13957958 (You) #

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 17:45:38 No.13958867 Report

Quoted By:

>>13948952
Its pretty cool, its like magic

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 17:45:48 No.13958868 Report

Quoted By:

>>13958016
>It is given that he happened to reveal a goat. Whether this was intentional or random is irrelevant.
I just showed you it is relevant. If Monty chooses a goat randomly, it's equally likely you chose a goat or a car. If not, it's twice as likely you chose a goat.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 13 Dec 2021 21:50:04 No.13959767 Report

Quoted By:

>>13953217
Well, Monty Hall was a television show whose goal was to amuse and do whatever those game shows do.

For the sake of the dilemma I suppose we have to presume total statistical fairness and the inability of the contestant to recognize goat stench.

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