>>13840092Doubt it, it'll probably take 2-3 years until we start getting high volume starship launches per year, due to the fact it'll take quite a bit of time for SpaceX to complete both ocean platforms. I'm guessing we'll see something like this:
2022 - 4-5 test launches, first successful reentry possible by the last launch of the year, Deimos and Phobos work begins heavily accelerating by Q3 of the year.
2023: 7-12 launches focused on proving early reuse goals and likely orbital refueling - starlink payloads, Deimos ready for orbital flights by the end of the year. First Starship reused this year.
2024: 30-40 launches, mix of starlink launches, Starship HLS uncrewed test, and first Mars window. Two ships are sent to Mars, requiring a total of 10 refuelings, with the two ships trying slightly different reentry profiles. Deimos is ready by Q2 in this year at latest, Phobos is ready by Q3-Q4.
2025: 60-80 launches, including first commercial and potentially first NASA launches at KSC. The majority of the launches would still be starlink, as it'll take over 253 starship launches due to increased mass of starlink 2.0. to fill the constellation. A large focus of this year would be increasing reuse turnaround time on Starships as well as improving the fuel/oxidizer logistics system required to do huge amounts of launches on the floating launch platforms.
2026: 100-150 launches, mostly starlink with 10 commercial launches, 1 NASA unmanned launch, Artemis III moon mission (requires 6 launches in total), and 6 ships are sent to Mars to prepare for first colonists which could very likely go in 2029 (36 launches related to Mars). Crewed starship testing happens this time too probably. Finally, I'm guessing the first sub one week turnaround for starship happens this year.
2027: 150-200 launches, starlink is finished during this year, and a significant increase in commercial payloads occurs. Dear moon and the first crew starship launches happen this year.
