>>13816466The difficulty with such studies is that we don't have a time machine so we simply have to wait and test, wait and test, over and over again until we see waning immunity. So far naturally acquired immunity appears to be robust and durable but there's always a chance that some variant will be different enough to change this.
My wild guess is that natural immunity will continue to work well and that most mutations will involve changes to the spike protein that the injections create immunity against. As more and more people become immune to the spike proteins, the pressure for the virus to change that aspect of itself will grow, which in turn will lessen the pressure to change the other parts of the virus, which are targeted by naturally acquired immunity. But that's a guess.