Probabilitylet

No.13805825 ViewReplyOriginalReport
I'm stumped trying to figure out a personal probability related problem and I don't know enough about the notation to understand anything I'm reading on educational sources.

I'm working on trying to figure out what the odds of an NFL Team winning their conference is - given that I know how often each of the individual teams will end the season with more wins than one other team.

For example, say I'm doing this for the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North.

I've estimated that the Ravens have:
- a 34% chance of beating the Bengals
- a 74% chance of beating the Browns
- a 78% chance of beating the Steelers

If I multiply these together (as I'm assuming is correct for figuring out the probability of all three happening), I get something around 19%, which seems fairly reasonable.

However, if I repeat this process for the other 3 teams in the conference with their respective odds, I get 50%, 2%, and 1%. Adding them together with the aforementioned 19% does not get anywhere close to 1, as I thought they should - since there are no possible scenarios where nobody wins the conference.

Where am I losing the missing percentages?