>>13776656NASA says they plan for the 2030s, and China's goal is to equal the US in space capacity by 2045. Space-X is the only serious contender to land humans on Mars in the 2020s, with Elon Musk saying 2026, so it's pretty much just how much you trust them/him.
For all the doomerism, with modern technology it isn't actually an incredible challenge; if NASA started receiving space race levels of funding they could have an astronaut on Mars next year. As it stands they plan to land someone on the Moon again in 2024, and just 3 years out everything in their progress reports promises success. Since NASA has explicitly said that the point of manned missions to the Moon is to prepare for landing astronauts on Mars I think 2030s is a very reasonable projection.
