/sci/ - Science & Math » Thread #13764622

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Anonymous Mon 18 Oct 18:26:31 2021 No.13764622 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>13764656 >>13765820 >>13765840 >>13767024 >>13767141 >>13767274

/math/ what is the statistical likelihood that the antarctic could record it's coldest winter ever during and era of global warming?
how would you even go about calculating that?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 18 Oct 2021 18:35:07 No.13764656 Report

Quoted By: >>13765590

>>13764622
1/2
Either it happens or it doesn't.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 18 Oct 2021 22:43:58 No.13765590 Report

Quoted By: >>13765928

>>13764656
>i can't do math
ok, thanks

is there anyone here on 4chan who actually knows how to do math?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 18 Oct 2021 23:22:00 No.13765820 Report

Quoted By:

>>13764622
Find the current trend of temperature based on last few years, from that calculate the expected temperature. Then calculate how much the temperature varies within broader temperature trends, i.e if 20% of the time it’s 0.5 C off of projections from similar calculations to what you’ve done for current years, and use those to write an equation that roughly satisfies the frequency of those variations. Find how much temperature today is varying from the prediction and then use the equation to calculate the approximate chance of that occurring. Then play with the equation until you get something that matches your biases, political beliefs, or corporate/government sponsors’ wishes.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 18 Oct 2021 23:29:07 No.13765840 Report

Quoted By: >>13766471 >>13767408

>>13764622
climate change impacts different parts of the world in different ways.
average global temperature has been going up for decades now, pretty much in lock step with CO2 concentrations

read the IPCC report on the state of climate science. it's a great resource that contains both summaries and in depth discussion. it also scores each statement with confidence values from "extremely unlikely" to "virtually certain"
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 18 Oct 2021 23:45:56 No.13765928 Report

Quoted By:

>>13765590
Newfag lurk for 2 years before posting

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 01:26:59 No.13766471 Report

Quoted By: >>13766673 >>13767003

>>13765840
>i can't do math
>i can't comprehend or understand science becuase i can't do math
>i only know how to pretend to understand science, which i accomplish by regurgitating propaganda
ok, thanks

is there anyone here on 4chan who actually knows how to do math?

Anonymous

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Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 02:21:12 No.13766673 Report

Quoted By: >>13766880

>>13766471
what's the point of discussing a calculation that doesn't fit your preconceptions or tiny brain?
are you unable to do the math? lol, fag

Anonymous

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Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 03:59:05 No.13766880 Report

Quoted By: >>13767014

>>13766673
you are aren't capable of doing basic mathematics, regurgitating other people's propaganda is all you seem to be capable of.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 04:40:13 No.13767003 Report

Quoted By:

>>13766471
How much math are you expecting people to know exactly? All that's relevant with this kind of stuff is stats, why don't you say 'can't do stats'?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 04:41:53 No.13767014 Report

Quoted By:

>>13766880
you aren't capable of going 10 seconds without thinking of trannies. project much?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 04:43:17 No.13767024 Report

Quoted By: >>13767040

>>13764622
Antarctica is a fucking big place anon, what do you mean 'coldest winter', I mean if New York has it's coldest winter on record Arizona could have a relatively normal one, wouldn't that throw off the U.S.'s average?
Considering how few stations and human settlement there are, how can you be sure that you'd be getting a reasonably detailed enough sample to determine the 'average' winter temperature over the entire fucking continent?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 04:48:59 No.13767040 Report

Quoted By: >>13767062

>>13767024
right, the area of landmass involved has a lot to do with the improbability of the situation, but to quantify the level improbability?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 04:54:33 No.13767062 Report

Quoted By: >>13767128

>>13767040
serious question: are you stupid?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 05:11:55 No.13767128 Report

Quoted By: >>13767138

>>13767062
>i am emotionally distressed and am unable to communicate rationally, the best i can manage is a lame pass at an insult
what caused your emotion distress?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 05:17:17 No.13767138 Report

Quoted By:

>>13767128
where did the IPCC touch you?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 05:18:33 No.13767141 Report

Quoted By: >>13767151 >>13767153

>>13764622
>if I take the assumptions as being certainly true, and the measurements as being correct
Then 100%, obviously. We already recorded it. It already happened. What are you gonna do, go back in time?

>if I question the assumptions, and want to determine if at least one of them is wrong
Calculus of variations, I guess. Don't a lot of schools teach that as either "Calculus 4" or "Advanced Calculus"? Advanced undergrad statistics probably needed as well.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 05:22:24 No.13767151 Report

Quoted By: >>13767166

>>13767141
>We already recorded it.
What do you mean by "we", Peasant?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 05:23:10 No.13767153 Report

Quoted By: >>13767175

>>13767141
>Advanced undergrad statistics probably needed as well.
if "average" and "standard deviation" are advanced statistical concepts, then yeah

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 05:25:13 No.13767166 Report

Quoted By: >>13767221

>>13767151
you do know every weather service in existence simply acts as a nice interface to NOAA weather data (and a bunch of other organizations) that is publicly published constantly, right?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 05:28:21 No.13767173 Report

Quoted By: >>13767183 >>13767193

>https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/
Definitely pretty cold on the south pole, it's absurdly warm on the north pole, and warms up the further you get from the south.
Heat distributions get unpredictable when there's way more energy in the system than normal.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 05:29:18 No.13767175 Report

Quoted By: >>13767209

>>13767153
>thinking knowing about "average" and "standard deviation" will magically allow you to solve for p-values and integrate statistical analysis into your analysis of a complex system
Oof, are you one of those guys whose thinks because he took a math course in college, you can do literally anything practical, because you can "just put all the pieces together, bro"? I bet that degree will be a perfect substitute experience, eh?

ngmi

Anonymous

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Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 05:31:44 No.13767183 Report

Quoted By: >>13767198

>>13767173
climate models show the north pole will heat up the most.
this is a screen grab of annual average temperature in a 2'C average warming scenario, the most realistic one

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 05:33:01 No.13767193 Report

Quoted By:

>>13767173
switch to Map Projection: Polar orthogonal, and Mean Period: to whatever months you're interested in.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 05:34:53 No.13767198 Report

Quoted By: >>13767217

>>13767183
Looking pretty fucking similar to GISTEMP this year.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 05:38:36 No.13767209 Report

Quoted By:

>>13767175
suppose we have estimates of temperatures for earth as a function of position and time.
want to find the average at any given moment? integrate the function over space and divide by the total area.
want to find the average at any given point? integrate the function over time and *gasp* divide by the total time interval.

you want to find out how improbable something is? a good place to start is to compute the standard deviation and see what percentile today falls into.

go back to >>>/pol/, underaged slime

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 05:41:12 No.13767217 Report

Quoted By: >>13767228 >>13767235

>>13767198
i'm not familiar with that, but it may have been incorporated into the IPCC report. it has technical discussions and citations for the models and data sets used for their predictions

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 05:41:53 No.13767221 Report

Quoted By: >>13767230

>>13767166
What part of that word salad is "we"?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 05:44:00 No.13767228 Report

Quoted By: >>13767250

>>13767217
what i linked bruh

Anonymous

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Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 05:44:21 No.13767230 Report

Quoted By: >>13767267

>>13767221
how else do you spell "weather"?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 05:46:33 No.13767235 Report

Quoted By: >>13767257 >>13767278 >>13767371 >>13767386

>>13767217
how do they calculate albedo on a planet that stores solar energy in organic chemical bonds sometimes for millions of years at a time?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 05:50:03 No.13767250 Report

Quoted By:

>>13767228
i missed the link in the green text, but looked it up anyway. it's one of several models discussed in the IPCC report.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 05:52:06 No.13767257 Report

Quoted By: >>13767270 >>13767320

>>13767235
The same way you calculate albedo on anything.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 05:57:15 No.13767267 Report

Quoted By:

>>13767230
I see what you did there.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 05:58:20 No.13767270 Report

Quoted By: >>13767333

>>13767257
i don't even know how to begin to answer the question because it makes no sense.
land, ocean, and ice coverage contribute much more to albedo than plant coverage

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 05:59:30 No.13767274 Report

Quoted By: >>13767281 >>13767284

>>13764622
We don't really know how the world work, that ok the problem is that some "people" think we do know every thing and some ""people"" believe them.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:00:19 No.13767278 Report

Quoted By:

>>13767235
>calculate albedo
>millions of years
wat

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:01:20 No.13767281 Report

Quoted By:

>>13767274
>We don't really know how the world work
What do you mean be "we", Peasant?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:01:58 No.13767284 Report

Quoted By:

>>13767274
good science includes error bars. climate science is full of them.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:13:02 No.13767320 Report

Quoted By: >>13767325 >>13767338

>>13767257
planck's law makes use the speed of propagation of electromagnetic radiation to determine the spectrum of blackbody radiation, if electromagnetic radiation is captured in an organic chemical bond then that radiation is no longer propagating at c.
what is the stefan–boltzmann constant when radiation stops moving at the normal rate?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:15:21 No.13767325 Report

Quoted By: >>13767339

>>13767320
>blackbody radiation
albedo has nothing whatever to do with blackbody radiation, Sherlock

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:18:20 No.13767333 Report

Quoted By: >>13767352

>>13767270
>ice coverage
the standard issue billiard ball physics doesn't even account for energy stored in changes of state, accounting for changes in reflectivity associates with those changes of state is over nine thousand times too complicated for their tiny little brains.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:19:21 No.13767338 Report

Quoted By:

>>13767320
>organic chemical bond then that radiation is no longer propagating at c.
stay in school kids.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:19:26 No.13767339 Report

Quoted By: >>13767345

>>13767325
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan–Boltzmann_law#Effective_temperature_of_the_Earth

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:20:56 No.13767345 Report

Quoted By: >>13767356

>>13767339
>nothing about albedo
L0Lno fgt pls

Anonymous

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Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:24:13 No.13767352 Report

Quoted By:

>>13767333
you're doing a great job of sounding like an imbecile. keep going

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:24:56 No.13767356 Report

Quoted By: >>13767361 >>13767367 >>13767382

>>13767345
It is included, but the part about plants somehow making radiation no longer travel at C is fucking retarded.
If energy is absorbed it's absorbed it's not fucking hard.
>30% of the solar radiation that hits the planet gets scattered back into space without absorption.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:28:41 No.13767361 Report

Quoted By:

>>13767356
>Earth has an albedo of 0.3
one thing
>the planet still radiates as a black body
another, totally different thing

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:31:51 No.13767367 Report

Quoted By:

>>13767356
I assume he's talking about the effective-temperature-of-earth calculation he linked.
Either way it's kind of a moot point because he's definitely one of those schitzos who thinks the greenhouse effect is a hoax.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:34:12 No.13767371 Report

Quoted By: >>13767386 >>13767404

>>13767235
There is no need to be such detailed and perfectionist. Seek approximations, not borgean 1:1 scaled maps.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:38:11 No.13767382 Report

Quoted By:

>>13767356
plants aren't cavity radiators
animals that eat plants aren't cavity radiators
warm blooded animals especially aren't cavity radiators.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:39:08 No.13767386 Report

Quoted By: >>13767414 >>13767431

>>13767235
>>13767371
No reason to be so defeatist, that anon should run the numbers himself.

Photosynthesis is between .2%-2% efficient in terms of energy being stored as biomass.
Plants take up ~30% of earths surface area.
This should be enough for you to get a very rough calculation of how much thermal energy is stored.
From there you need to account for when thermal energy is released by fires, consumption, and decomposition.
Let us know how it goes.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:50:14 No.13767404 Report

Quoted By: >>13767414 >>13767419 >>13767424 >>13767842

>>13767371
There is a need to be such detailed and perfectionist. Your willingness to be intellectually lazy about the issue is what allows the issue to remain unquantified. If the global warming supporters are going to insist that they have the right to seize vast wealth and control on the basis of a fraction of a percentage of temperature change then they need to be be able to qualify their basis precisely. Endless screeching of "global warming is real because gretchen thunderburp and bill noy the soi goy say so" isn't satisfactory.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:51:59 No.13767408 Report

Quoted By: >>13767430 >>13767435 >>13768660

>>13765840
I dont trust anything out of the UN because powerful political families dont care about it either. Its just a social club for daughters of presidents and diplomats that could not make it to ambassador to Zambia.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:55:41 No.13767414 Report

Quoted By:

>>13767404
so do it dude
>>13767386

Anonymous

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Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:56:51 No.13767419 Report

Quoted By:

>>13767404

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:59:19 No.13767424 Report

Quoted By:

>>13767404
guess what? TIME is a rag.
you want science? read what interests you in the IPCC report, its summaries, or the research it links to. it has more than enough information to make you vomit

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 07:00:23 No.13767430 Report

Quoted By:

>>13767408
at least we can agree /pol/ is a sound source of information.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 07:00:24 No.13767431 Report

Quoted By: >>13767437

>>13767386
>anon should run the numbers himself.

>>OP
>how would you even go about calculating that?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 07:00:48 No.13767435 Report

Quoted By: >>13767511 >>13767635

>>13767408
>I dont trust anything out of the UN
IPCC is not about UN, Anon

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 07:01:23 No.13767437 Report

Quoted By:

>>13767431
two very different questions, and I gave him more than enough to get started on an ok estimate.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 07:43:43 No.13767511 Report

Quoted By:

>>13767435
Its a body of the UN.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 08:54:04 No.13767635 Report

Quoted By:

>>13767435
>The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an intergovernmental body of the United Nations responsible for advancing knowledge on human-induced climate change.[1][2][3][4] It was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and later endorsed by United Nations General Assembly.[5] Headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, it is comprised of 195 member states.[6][7]
Faggot niggerbitch retard

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 11:08:21 No.13767842 Report

Quoted By:

>>13767404
>Covers that have nothing to do with global cooling
>Fake cover
It's amazing that climate "sceptics" will believe any dumb bullshit they stumble across, so long as it fits their pre-existing views. You could have checked what those articles were about in a few seconds, but you couldn't even be bothered doing that.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 19 Oct 2021 16:53:08 No.13768660 Report

Quoted By:

>>13767408
then why are you on /sci/ if you reject anything approaching science?
who do you think is a trusted source of information? /pol/?

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