/sci/ - Science & Math » Thread #13751256

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Disproving this stupid problem.

Anonymous Thu 14 Oct 17:27:51 2021 No.13751256 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>13751273 >>13751380 >>13751450 >>13752704 >>13752723 >>13757422 >>13759140 >>13759144

Let's say I pick door 1 in this case. So far, I have 1/3 odds of getting the car, and Monty has 2/3. Monty opens door 3 which has a goat, and asks me if I want to switch doors. The thing though is that I am blind, and I can't see if that door had a goat or he's just offering me the car face on. And so I switch, to door number 3, not getting the car in the end. The 2/3 odds though accounts for me opening BOTH doors, which is against the rules.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 14 Oct 2021 17:32:07 No.13751273 Report

Quoted By: >>13752704

>>13751256
Also, there's always 0 chance that door 3 has the car, therefore making it pointless

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 14 Oct 2021 17:34:33 No.13751280 Report

Quoted By:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability

Anonymous

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Anonymous Thu 14 Oct 2021 18:04:29 No.13751380 Report

Quoted By: >>13752728 >>13759145

>>13751256

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 14 Oct 2021 18:26:44 No.13751450 Report

Quoted By: >>13752435 >>13755486

>>13751256

Incorrect.

Another way to visualize this is to pretend there are 999999999999999 doors. You pick a door, and then the host opens 999999999999997 other doors that all contain goats (as he will only open doors that contain goats), leaving you to choose whether to stay with your original door or switch to the one remaining other closed door. Either you were exceptionally lucky and the first door you picked had the car (a 1/999999999999999 chance), or the car is behind the other door (which, since all those goat-doors were revealed and therefore eliminated as options, has a 999999999999998/999999999999999 chance of having the car). Staying with your original door would be stupid.

As you lower the number of doors, the outcome is the same: It's always smarter to switch doors than to stay with your original door. The only point at which it becomes a genuine 50/50 chance whether your door or the other door has the car is if there were only two doors to begin with, meaning that the host opened zero doors. The host's meddling increases the chances that the other door contains the car.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 14 Oct 2021 20:03:15 No.13751777 Report

Quoted By:

I pick orthogonal eigengoats.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Thu 14 Oct 2021 22:50:29 No.13752435 Report

Quoted By:

>>13751450
>he opens every door except door 3248239483249
Gee I wonder what's behind that door and why he left that one shut...

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 15 Oct 2021 00:24:26 No.13752704 Report

Quoted By: >>13752710

>>13751256
>The thing though is that I am blind, and I can't see if that door had a goat or he's just offering me the car face on.
>>13751273
>there's always 0 chance that door 3 has the car
Either you're misunderstanding the game or you don't know how to communicate without introducing unnecessary confusion. That's gonna be a pass from me, bro.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 15 Oct 2021 00:27:50 No.13752710 Report

Quoted By: >>13752718

>>13752704
>you're misunderstanding the game
projection, the post

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 15 Oct 2021 00:33:52 No.13752718 Report

Quoted By: >>13752725

>>13752710
He can't open a door with a car, you mongoloid. Even if you're blind, you know he hasn't opened a door with a car. At least, you know this if you understand the fucking problem.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 15 Oct 2021 00:39:19 No.13752723 Report

Quoted By: >>13752842

>>13751256
you dont switch to the door he opens

the problem isn't about a blind person and if it were he would tell you which door has the goat that he opened

Anonymous

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Anonymous Fri 15 Oct 2021 00:40:09 No.13752725 Report

Quoted By: >>13752732

>>13752718
>He can't open a door with a car
yes, that's exactly why "there's always 0 chance that door 3 has the car"

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 15 Oct 2021 00:42:18 No.13752728 Report

Quoted By: >>13759100

I love that problem. the gamemaster opening the door is a such great red herring and confuses people to no end when it is so simple as seen here >>13751380

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 15 Oct 2021 00:43:07 No.13752732 Report

Quoted By: >>13752737 >>13752743

>>13752725
>"there's always 0 chance that door 3 has the car"
There's 1/3 chance that door 3 has the car, you mongoloid. If door 3 has the car, he opens door 2. You're discarding this knowledge of the game because you're a mongoloid.
You can't even communicate properly without being a sloppy fucking mouth-breather.
>Monty opens door 3 [...] And so I switch, to door number 3
I had to waste brain power mentally correcting your sloppiness to "door number 2."

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 15 Oct 2021 00:47:09 No.13752737 Report

Quoted By:

>>13752732
read your own post "Monty opens door 3"

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 15 Oct 2021 00:49:07 No.13752743 Report

Quoted By: >>13752747 >>13752749

>>13752732
read your own post: "Monty opens door 3"
You can't even communicate properly

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 15 Oct 2021 00:51:21 No.13752747 Report

Quoted By:

>>13752743
Quoting the OP, you dumb faggot.
Is this where you pretend you're just baiting? It's the standard play of you low-IQ dipshit.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 15 Oct 2021 00:52:23 No.13752749 Report

Quoted By: >>13752756 >>13755559

>>13752743
Quoting the OP, you dumb faggot.
Is this where you pretend you're just baiting? It's the standard play of you low-IQ dipshits.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 15 Oct 2021 00:55:20 No.13752756 Report

Quoted By:

>>13752749
>schizo babbling intensifies

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 15 Oct 2021 01:40:58 No.13752842 Report

Quoted By:

>>13752723
>you dont switch to the door he opens
this. OP is a brainlet.

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 15 Oct 2021 20:51:30 No.13755486 Report

Quoted By:

>>13751450
That is the best way to intuitively understand it I've ever seen

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 15 Oct 2021 21:24:09 No.13755559 Report

Quoted By:

>>13752749
>faggot
Why the homophobia?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 16 Oct 2021 11:25:14 No.13757422 Report

Quoted By:

>>13751256
>Monty opens door 3 which has a goat
>I switch, to door number 3
Those aren't actually the rules of the game. You're allowed the option to switch to the remaining closed door. Not any door you want.
>I can't see if that door had a goat or he's just offering me the car face on
This is also against the rules of the game. Monty always, always reveals a goat. But it has been proven that a variant in which Monty might accidentally reveal the car averages out to 50-50 (you're still not allowed to switch to the car if it's revealed).

Anonymous

View Same Google iqdb SauceNAO monty hall problem.png, 50KiB, 2261x712

Anonymous Sat 16 Oct 2021 22:05:35 No.13759100 Report

Quoted By:

>>13752728
the pic is dumb because probabilities are not constant when new information is gained. this pic is the correct explanation.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 16 Oct 2021 22:12:56 No.13759119 Report

Quoted By:

The reason it works is because he always opens a goat-door. That's literally why it works.

So the door that he conspicuously avoided opening has a greater chance of being the car. For example, what if there were 1001 doors. You choose 1 of them, and the host opens 999 doors with goats behind them, conspiciously skipping one of the doors.

Which door is the car more likely going to be behind? The one door that the host avoided opening, or the door that you chose at random? Another way to think about this, by making your selection you have divided the doors into two groups. One of the groups has 1 door, one of the groups has 2 doors. Thus if you choose to change your guess to the other group, you have a 2/3 chance of being right, whereas if you stay with your original guess, you only have a 1/3 chance

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 16 Oct 2021 22:20:58 No.13759140 Report

Quoted By:

>>13751256
>The thing though is that I am blind, and I can't see if that door had a goat or he's just offering me the car face on.
He doesn't open the car door. He always avoids the car door because he knows which one it is. That's the entire point, his choice of door leaks information about the other door.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 16 Oct 2021 22:23:44 No.13759144 Report

Quoted By:

>>13751256
I didn't even read your diarrhea thought process. That's how stupid you are.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 16 Oct 2021 22:24:02 No.13759145 Report

Quoted By: >>13759596

>>13751380
Draw the rectangle over your right door and middle door. Open unrelated door with goat. Probability stays the same

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 16 Oct 2021 22:36:58 No.13759173 Report

Quoted By:

You know they say that all men are created equal, but you look at me and you look at Samoa Joe and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with another wrestler, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add Kurt Angle to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way at Sacrifice, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because Kurt Angle KNOWS he can't beat me and he's not even gonna try!
So Samoa Joe, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. See Joe, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at Sacrifice.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 17 Oct 2021 01:58:27 No.13759596 Report

Quoted By:

>>13759145
If you draw it over middle/right door, that means you picked the left door, and the problem changes

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