>>13715477Each claim is independent, but the final result comprising of x number of claims in your hand depends on having all the claims being true.
Occam Razor heuristics forces you to identify the number of claims and then calculate the probabilities.
If I make the claim that the next person you see on the street is a man, you have 50% of being correct. If I make the claim that that person is a man, he's tall, drives a 2021 BMW, works at costco as a manager, is married, has a daughter, has incestual sex with his daughter, lives in 2 bedroom house in alaska, but has 2nd home in IOWA for tax dodging purposes, votes democrats, has an abusive mother, his grandma is dead, great grandpa fought in wwii, reads enders game, masturbates to gay porn, posts on 4chan, etc.
That's not a 50% chance. Thats less than 0,000000001% chance given the numerous claims and all of them must be true. Even if you stayed in the street for 100 years, you may not meet that kind of a man.
