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Anonymous Thu 30 Sep 03:16:12 2021 No.13699222 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>13699274 >>13699284 >>13701349 >>13701455 >>13701461

Gambler's Fallacy isn't real, if you're lucky right now you're more likely to be unlucky in the future.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 30 Sep 2021 03:31:07 No.13699274 Report

Quoted By: >>13700103

>>13699222
gambler's fallacy is real
hence it being classified a fallacy by people who have dedicated valuable thought to understanding it
science is for facts, not opinions

the problem with your reasoning is that it assumes causation, that being lucky causes bad luck in the future, in reality it doesn't, and events are a random-ish selection of whatever set of possible events and probabilities

a coin cannot remember what it landed on nor can it affect future flips

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 30 Sep 2021 03:33:31 No.13699284 Report

Quoted By:

>>13699222
HHHHHHHHHHH
vs
HHHHHHHHHHT
it's 50/50

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 30 Sep 2021 03:56:33 No.13699387 Report

Quoted By: >>13699514

Gamblers fallacy is casino propaganda to stop you from profiting off them. Think about it: what's the longest recorded streak of red or black in roulette of all casinos? Now how many times has this recorded maximum occurred? If youre at a casino, and hit 1-2 occurrences before this recorded rare maximum, you can be pretty certain the pattern will end. Otherwise, it would have already. After all, 50/50 right bros?

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 30 Sep 2021 04:34:58 No.13699514 Report

Quoted By: >>13700933

>>13699387
so when is the chance 60% ?

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 30 Sep 2021 08:27:49 No.13700091 Report

Quoted By:

the thing is it's real because probability is not
a coin can't be 50% one thing and 50% the other every time you flip a coin it is heads or tails not 50/50 if you had a set of flips that was already determined to be 50/50, and the first half of flips you checked were heads you could be certain the second half was all tails, but we aren't concerning past flips only future flips. It doesn't matter if you get heads 50 times in a row, that doesn't have any effect on later outcomes. any time you get a string of heads or tails, the next string of flips is more likely to be closer to the middle, not toward the opposite end. further, in life, a little bit of serious good or bad luck will affect your whole life and you are more likely to stay "lucky" or "unlucky".

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 30 Sep 2021 08:32:01 No.13700103 Report

Quoted By: >>13700576

>>13699274
>the problem with your reasoning is that it assumes causation
But that's wrong, you sub-90-IQ brainlet. You don't have to assume any causation. You simply have to assume (falsely) that you have a limited supply of luck. I fucking hate pop-sci midwits.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 30 Sep 2021 10:43:39 No.13700576 Report

Quoted By: >>13700582

>>13700103
Each of the Legions has now nominated aspirants seeking to throw themselves upon our mercy in the vain hope that we may deem them worthy to join our ranks. Those loyal to the shrunken corpse on Terra still cling to their own processes by which perhaps one in a hundred neophytes may survive to become a battle brother. The methods I have developed over the last millennia are more stringent, for we must be pure in our hatred and hard of heart, body and soul. Fewer than one in every thousand survive, and I strive each day to lengthen these odds still further.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 30 Sep 2021 10:45:14 No.13700582 Report

Quoted By: >>13700593

>>13700576
Seethe harder, brainlet. It's not gonna fix your mental deficiency, though.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 30 Sep 2021 10:48:23 No.13700593 Report

Quoted By: >>13700605

>>13700582
Unlike you, whelp, I once walked the same ground as your idol. I breathed the same air as him. And I tell you this, without lie or artifice. He never wanted to become what you have made him! He did not wish to be your god-thing. He abhorred such ideals! The slavery of your crippled, blind Imperium would sicken him, if he had eyes to see it.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 30 Sep 2021 10:52:20 No.13700605 Report

Quoted By: >>13700616

>>13700593
Good boy. Seethe me some more. Not gonna change the fact that a universe consistent with the Gambler's Fallacy doesn't require any "memory" or "causality" between flips.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 30 Sep 2021 10:55:04 No.13700616 Report

Quoted By:

>>13700605
Though the gates that stand between the mortal world and the immortal Realm of Chaos are now closed to me, still I would rather die having glimpsed eternity than never to have stirred from the cold furrow of mortal life. I embrace death without regret as I have embraced life without fear.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 30 Sep 2021 12:51:18 No.13700933 Report

Quoted By: >>13701341

>>13699514
I don't sign hard numbers to it. I just know it's extremely unlikely to occur so I bet large on the opposite color. Here's the strategy: sit at a roulette table, bet minimum on a color until you see the wheel hit a long streak of 8. Then bet big on opposite color. In my decades of this betting strategy, I've made over $100,000 net winnings. Sometimes I'm wrong and we hit the 9th straight, but usually I'm right. If it were 50/50 chance, it'd be extremely unlikely for me to be a career winner like that.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 30 Sep 2021 15:05:36 No.13701322 Report

Quoted By:

OP is right.

Define a 'fair coin'
> A coin that produces equal amount of heads and tails when thrown infinite time

Now if I throw 100 times and get 100 heads, the following needs to happen: In the next infinite minus 100 throws, there must be N tails and N-100 heads. Otherwise the coin isnt fair.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 30 Sep 2021 15:13:09 No.13701341 Report

Quoted By: >>13701377

>>13700933
>hand waving intensifies
shocker

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 30 Sep 2021 15:14:46 No.13701349 Report

Quoted By: >>13701455

>>13699222
Very true, it's very unlikely to be unlucky beyond a certain threshold, but that doesn't mean much about your returns.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 30 Sep 2021 15:22:08 No.13701377 Report

Quoted By: >>13701478

>>13701341
Let me put it this way. How many times has the recorded maximum streak of red or black occurred in a casino? How many times has that maximum minus 1 occurred? How do you expect the two values to correspond to one another using the gamblers fallacy math? Does the data match your expectations? Look, I don't have the mathematical quantifications for you. All I have are my observations and profits off those observations. I suspect the fundamental axioms of probability theory are flawed, or at least maybe Bayes theorem. Because the math used to justify the gamblers fallacy doesn't match the reality of what happens at casinos.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 30 Sep 2021 15:52:12 No.13701455 Report

Quoted By: >>13701482

>>13699222
>>13701349
>think he can predict future
It's a fallacy

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 30 Sep 2021 15:55:56 No.13701461 Report

Quoted By:

>>13699222
checked

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 30 Sep 2021 16:01:05 No.13701478 Report

Quoted By: >>13701512

>>13701377
How many times has anyone won _in_a_looong_run_, with a better average than 50%

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 30 Sep 2021 16:02:15 No.13701482 Report

Quoted By:

>>13701455
>thinks he cant
>and therefore does
epic fail

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 30 Sep 2021 16:15:25 No.13701512 Report

Quoted By:

>>13701478
How many have followed my strategy? I'll make a new post about it.

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