/sci/ - Science & Math » Thread #13668112

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Anonymous Tue 21 Sep 23:15:21 2021 No.13668112 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>13668121 >>13669491 >>13669522 >>13669617 >>13669620 >>13669637 >>13669670 >>13669891 >>13669908

I don't get it

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 21 Sep 2021 23:17:45 No.13668121 Report

Quoted By: >>13669704 >>13670529

>>13668112
You don't get it because you pose yourself a new question after finding out information about the doors.

It is 50/50 if you ask a new question about the probabilities given knowledge of the first door.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 21 Sep 2021 23:19:53 No.13668126 Report

Quoted By: >>13668127

watch the vsauce video on it

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 21 Sep 2021 23:20:20 No.13668127 Report

Quoted By: >>13670110 >>13670132

>>13668126

HEY VSAUCE

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 21 Sep 2021 23:26:57 No.13668139 Report

Quoted By:

Just think if there was a hundred doors. If you still don't get it you might have brain damage.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 21 Sep 2021 23:28:52 No.13668140 Report

Quoted By: >>13669520

Someone explain without making shit up why it's not 1/2.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 02:13:07 No.13668588 Report

Quoted By: >>13669541

whats da chances you was wrong on da first pick? 2/3 so you should prob switch cuz you was probs wrong

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 09:24:36 No.13669491 Report

Quoted By:

>>13668112
Basically, the hosts choice of door is influence by your choice, but also by the actual location of the prize. In other words, once he chooses you glean some information about the door he was avoiding.
In 1/3 of cases you chose the right door to begin with and he's just showing 1 of 2 empty doors, but in 2/3 of the cases the door he avoids is the one with the prize.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 09:39:33 No.13669520 Report

Quoted By:

>>13668140
If you change from a goatless door you win a goat.
You had a 2/3 chance of picking a goatless door.
Pretty simple.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 09:43:48 No.13669522 Report

Quoted By:

>>13668112
The crux of this shit that makes so confusing for many people is that deterimne both points (pick a door at first, and then the switch Y/N?) as seperate independent events, where the door switiching odds would indeed be 50/50, when they are infact dependent on each other. With them influencing each other to righ the odds of the door switch into 66/33.

Or to summarize it briefly:
Switching doors is always the correct move if your first pick of the three was wrong yes?
What is the probability that the first door you picked was incorrect?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 10:06:12 No.13669541 Report

Quoted By:

>>13668588
that doesn't make any sense. Obvious bugs like these should give us a clue about the code quality of the simulation.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 10:43:33 No.13669617 Report

Quoted By:

>>13668112
Learn how to draw probability trees. Then you will easily solve this and every dumb bait pic posted here.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 10:45:09 No.13669620 Report

Quoted By: >>13669624

>>13668112
Apparently pigeons tested for this shit intuitivey choose to switch doors
I don't know how the fuck would anyone even create a test that can be run by a pigeon, but I know this makes you officially dumber than a pigeon

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 10:46:33 No.13669624 Report

Quoted By: >>13669649

>>13669620
>Apparently pigeons tested for this shit intuitivey choose to switch doors
Are you sure they didn't just learn to switch after however many trials?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 10:51:18 No.13669637 Report

Quoted By: >>13669640

>>13668112
its bullshit. just draw the tree and you will see that their arguments are nonsense its always 1/2.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 10:53:10 No.13669640 Report

Quoted By:

>>13669637
can you please draw a tree from which you conlcude that the probabilty is 1/2?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 10:56:52 No.13669649 Report

Quoted By: >>13669689

>>13669624
Even if htey did, that still shows reaching an understanding of probability, unless the reward was behind the same door every time

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 11:04:43 No.13669670 Report

Quoted By:

>>13668112
easy, the 3 is behind the door

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 11:15:02 No.13669689 Report

Quoted By:

>>13669649
Not really, Skinner's enough to explain their switching behavior if the switching response leads to a reward twice as often.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 11:22:37 No.13669704 Report

Quoted By: >>13670442 >>13670517 >>13670529

>>13668121
>It is 50/50 if you ask a new question about the probabilities given knowledge of the first door.
Outline a testable procedure, that directly reflects the problem statement, and yields an approximate result of 1/2 upon sufficient repetition. Protip: you will now deflect because it's impossible.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 12:22:59 No.13669891 Report

Quoted By: >>13669896

>>13668112
2/3 of the time the initial pick will be a goat
this means that is the next door shown is also a goat, the last one will be a car

1/3 of the time the initial pick is a car
this means that when the other goat is shown, the left over one is also a goat

imagine you always pick the leftmost door
GGC
you pick goat, goat is shown and you switch to car
GCG
you pick goat, goat is shown and you switch to car
CGG
you pick car, goat is shown and you switch to goat

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 12:25:58 No.13669896 Report

Quoted By:

>>13669891
also
goat 1 is shown 100% of the time (opened door)
goat 2 is shown 2/3 of the time (initial pick)
this means that 2/3 of the time the only door unopened is the car
which is the one that you would switch to

I think the answer lies in the fact that monty will certainly open a door that has a goat in it, and that the initial pick is always 2/3 chance of goat

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 12:31:16 No.13669908 Report

Quoted By:

>>13668112
If you initially picked a goat (2/3 times) and you switch, you win.
If you initially picked a car (1/3 times) and you switch, you lose.
The first situation is twice as likely as the second, so switching is twice as likely to help you win as it is to make you lose.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 12:43:26 No.13669933 Report

Quoted By: >>13669938 >>13669952 >>13669957

Imagine there was 100 doors with 99 goats instead of 3.

>You pick a door. The chance of getting the car is 1/100.
>The host reveals 98 of the goats

Is the chance that your original door was right now suddenly 50/50?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 12:45:05 No.13669938 Report

Quoted By: >>13669962

>>13669933
>Imagine there was 100 doors with 99 goats instead of 3.
If you think you can imagine 100 doors with 99 goats, you are overestimating your visualization capabilities, as brainlets tend to do. Try to do some real reasoning for a change instead of your delusional "imagining".

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 12:50:09 No.13669952 Report

Quoted By: >>13669962

>>13669933
>The host reveals 98 of the goats
Completely arbitrary. He reveals only half of the goats. Now what?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 12:51:59 No.13669957 Report

Quoted By: >>13669966 >>13669971 >>13670034

>>13669933
>Imagine there was 100 doors with 99 goats instead of 3.
That's not analogous to the original problem.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 12:53:25 No.13669962 Report

Quoted By:

>>13669938
>>13669952

so do you just hang out here making obvious bait to get people to reply to you? are you starved of human interaction or something what do you get out of this?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 12:55:58 No.13669966 Report

Quoted By:

>>13669957
How is not?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 12:58:03 No.13669971 Report

Quoted By: >>13669986

>>13669957
It is analagous actually. The host has perfect knowledge and you don't. Your first guess (assuming random) is less likely to be correct than when the host starts knocking off variables. Opening 98/100 doors is giving you absurdly more information than opening 1/3 but the information is leaving the host either way.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 13:05:39 No.13669986 Report

Quoted By:

>>13669971
It has nothing to do with your wank. It has to do only with the fact that your initial odds were 1/3 while later on it's 1/2.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 13:17:44 No.13670034 Report

Quoted By: >>13670052

>>13669957
yes it is

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 13:22:38 No.13670052 Report

Quoted By: >>13670086

>>13670034
Not analogous, and your picture has nothing whatsoever to do with anything.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 13:32:04 No.13670086 Report

Quoted By: >>13670094

>>13670052
lol ok retard

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 13:34:49 No.13670093 Report

Quoted By:

Anyone not switching doors should be forced to wear an arm band

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 13:34:53 No.13670094 Report

Quoted By:

>>13670086
Explain how your pic shows that completely changing the odds of the problem proves anything about the original problem.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 13:38:42 No.13670110 Report

Quoted By: >>13670132

>>13668127
MICHAEL HERE

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 13:46:16 No.13670132 Report

Quoted By:

>>13668127
>>13670110

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 13:58:15 No.13670159 Report

Quoted By: >>13670181

Why is switching giving a 2/3rd win chance when either door one or two has a car? Why is it not 50/50

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 14:06:22 No.13670181 Report

Quoted By: >>13670204

>>13670159
Why would it be 50/50?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 14:12:57 No.13670204 Report

Quoted By: >>13670213

>>13670181
Door 1 either has a car or door 2 does

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 14:15:10 No.13670213 Report

Quoted By:

>>13670204
Possibility A: you picked the car, the other door hides a goat.
Possibility B: you picked the goat, the other door hides a car.
Who said possibility A is as likely as possibility B?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 15:22:14 No.13670442 Report

Quoted By:

>>13669704
>that directly reflects the problem statement,
The post was saying that the 1/2 confusion arises precisely because people stop thinking about the problem statement and begin asking a new problem based on the later information, where you know for a fact that one door has the whatever and one door does not.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 15:47:08 No.13670517 Report

Quoted By: >>13670529 >>13670539

>>13669704
10 minutes is all you need
https://pastebin.com/RwFUE3N4

Run with
python monty_hall.py --stay
to stay and
python monty_hall.py --switch
to switch.

You can control the number of sims and doors with other options, see the --help output. Requires Python 3.8

If you don't think that this reflects the problem, tell me what's wrong with it.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 15:50:10 No.13670529 Report

Quoted By:

>>13670517
>>13669704
>>13668121

Quoted the wrong post

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 15:53:27 No.13670539 Report

Quoted By: >>13670550

>>13670517
>needing more than 4 lines to simulate this problem
>in python
I'm not running it, and I'm certainly not wasting time trying to decipher your shitty code. What's the supposed conclusion?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 15:56:32 No.13670550 Report

Quoted By: >>13670597

>>13670539
I would love to see a simulation in 4 lines.
I'm sure you could do it in less than then 100 that I used, but I intentionally did it naively so it is easy to follow. You don't really have to use your brain to read this code.
The conclusion is that if you stay, of course your probability of winning is 1/3. If you switch, the probability becomes 2/3. This simulation shows that the probability approaches 2/3 the more sims you run.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 15:58:42 No.13670555 Report

Quoted By:

If you need this explained to you you shouldn't be on this board. Midwits are a fucking curse.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 22 Sep 2021 16:15:28 No.13670597 Report

Quoted By:

>>13670550
>I would love to see a simulation in 4 lines.

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