What is the probability we are living in a long-lasting civilization, given the fact that we know we were born during our generation?
let L be the event that our civilization lasts for X years
let B be the event that we are born now, 6000 years after the beginning of recorded history
From bayes theorem we have:
p(L|B) = p(B | L)p(L) / (p(B|L)p(L) + p(B|~L)p(~L))
p(B | L) = let's say 100/X since our time period is about 100 years long
p(B | ~L) = 100/ 6000 since our civilization has been around for about 6000 years.
p(L) = this one is hard because we don't have data on how many long-lasting civilizations exist, one might even want to set this to zero because of that fact, let's just call this variable p and we'll play around with the values.
p(L|B) = (100/X)p / ((100/x)p + (100/6000)(1-p))
If we set X to 60,000 and p to 0.1 we get this probability.
p(L|B) = (100/60000)(0.1) / ((100/60000)0.1 + (100/6000)(0.9)) = 0.010989011
So according to those parameters there is only a 1% chance that our civilization will last until 60,000 years.
In pic related you can see a plot where the x axis (going up and to the left) is the prior probability of a civilization lasting for X years, and the y axis (coming towards us) is how long you would expect that civilization to last. the z (vertical) is the probability that our civilization will last Y years. You can see that as the expected length of the civilization becomes longer, the probability that we are living in that civilization goes down.
Of course, there are various rejections to reasoning like this. One such being that no matter what you are always born at the very latest point in your civilization. But let me know what you think about this anons. Am I misusing statistics here? What facets of this am I leaving out?
let L be the event that our civilization lasts for X years
let B be the event that we are born now, 6000 years after the beginning of recorded history
From bayes theorem we have:
p(L|B) = p(B | L)p(L) / (p(B|L)p(L) + p(B|~L)p(~L))
p(B | L) = let's say 100/X since our time period is about 100 years long
p(B | ~L) = 100/ 6000 since our civilization has been around for about 6000 years.
p(L) = this one is hard because we don't have data on how many long-lasting civilizations exist, one might even want to set this to zero because of that fact, let's just call this variable p and we'll play around with the values.
p(L|B) = (100/X)p / ((100/x)p + (100/6000)(1-p))
If we set X to 60,000 and p to 0.1 we get this probability.
p(L|B) = (100/60000)(0.1) / ((100/60000)0.1 + (100/6000)(0.9)) = 0.010989011
So according to those parameters there is only a 1% chance that our civilization will last until 60,000 years.
In pic related you can see a plot where the x axis (going up and to the left) is the prior probability of a civilization lasting for X years, and the y axis (coming towards us) is how long you would expect that civilization to last. the z (vertical) is the probability that our civilization will last Y years. You can see that as the expected length of the civilization becomes longer, the probability that we are living in that civilization goes down.
Of course, there are various rejections to reasoning like this. One such being that no matter what you are always born at the very latest point in your civilization. But let me know what you think about this anons. Am I misusing statistics here? What facets of this am I leaving out?
