Hi /sci/. I was in a discussion with my friend about the slippery slope fallacy. Where if A to B happens with a large percentage possibly, the likelihood of Z happening is very low because of all of the steps needed to get to step z even if there is a large probability of steps. This seems to be similar reasoning to the Monty hall door problem.
https://youtu.be/Qt4f7QrfRRc
What I am wondering is if conditional probability, if z given a to b and then b to c happens. I'd imagine that if a to y has occurred, that z has a higher chance of happening. I was also thinking that under some situations where the probability is low in the beginning but have a higher likely hood for instance the adoption of something, since it is gathering momentum, has a higher likelihood since the lower probabilitys were cancelled out at the beginning at a to b and the higher likelihood are at the end y to z in this example. Can someone please send me some resources on this. I am interested and am having a hard time finding more info on this specific idea.
https://youtu.be/Qt4f7QrfRRc
What I am wondering is if conditional probability, if z given a to b and then b to c happens. I'd imagine that if a to y has occurred, that z has a higher chance of happening. I was also thinking that under some situations where the probability is low in the beginning but have a higher likely hood for instance the adoption of something, since it is gathering momentum, has a higher likelihood since the lower probabilitys were cancelled out at the beginning at a to b and the higher likelihood are at the end y to z in this example. Can someone please send me some resources on this. I am interested and am having a hard time finding more info on this specific idea.
