/sci/, let's talk about the lack of a 2020 influenza season.
What could cause it?
Will we see it again?
Is the data real or an artifact?
Image is from:
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
which is kind of fun to play around with.
I think the data is real since people are indeed being tested with the same types of flu tests as previous years and they're coming up negative. We've tested more this year than last (figures like 1.3m vs 1m tests). I was tempted to write it off as deaths being coded as COVID for reimbursement but that doesn't hold up to the negative tests. COVID is probably inflated but that doesn't mean influenza should be practically 0.
My guess on the cause is that there are some type of virus-virus interaction in respiratory infections. That would also explains why flu strains come in predominant strains and we don't see populations getting infected with multiple subtypes (H1N1,H2N2 etc.). I have no idea what the mechanism would be though.
Before some fag says lockdowns and handwashing, SWEDEN UNLOCKED has the same trend in flu cases. I don't think there's any place with covid that has substantial flu.
My prediction is that if COVID remains the 'top' respiratory virus, then it will keep pushing influenza out of the respiratory infection niche. Depending on how covid and influenza mutate I think we'll see them swap places sometime down the line like how predominant influenza strains swap every ~30ish years as the healthy population becomes naïve to the subtypes (ref. the pulse of H1N1 pandemics throughout the years).
If that is really how it works, maybe it is possible to engineer an respiratory virus that is extremely infectious but with extremely low lethality that could occupy the niche.
What could cause it?
Will we see it again?
Is the data real or an artifact?
Image is from:
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
which is kind of fun to play around with.
I think the data is real since people are indeed being tested with the same types of flu tests as previous years and they're coming up negative. We've tested more this year than last (figures like 1.3m vs 1m tests). I was tempted to write it off as deaths being coded as COVID for reimbursement but that doesn't hold up to the negative tests. COVID is probably inflated but that doesn't mean influenza should be practically 0.
My guess on the cause is that there are some type of virus-virus interaction in respiratory infections. That would also explains why flu strains come in predominant strains and we don't see populations getting infected with multiple subtypes (H1N1,H2N2 etc.). I have no idea what the mechanism would be though.
Before some fag says lockdowns and handwashing, SWEDEN UNLOCKED has the same trend in flu cases. I don't think there's any place with covid that has substantial flu.
My prediction is that if COVID remains the 'top' respiratory virus, then it will keep pushing influenza out of the respiratory infection niche. Depending on how covid and influenza mutate I think we'll see them swap places sometime down the line like how predominant influenza strains swap every ~30ish years as the healthy population becomes naïve to the subtypes (ref. the pulse of H1N1 pandemics throughout the years).
If that is really how it works, maybe it is possible to engineer an respiratory virus that is extremely infectious but with extremely low lethality that could occupy the niche.