>Percentage of papers reporting a support for the tested hypothesis plotted against year of publication and divided by discipline of journal (SP Space Science, AG Agricultural Sciences, BB Biology & Biochemistry, CH Chemistry, CM Clinical Medicine, CS Computer Science, EB Economics & Business, EE Environment/Ecology, EN Engineering, GE Geosciences, IM Immunology, MB Molecular Biology & Genetics, MI Microbiology, MS Materials Science, NB Neuroscience & Behaviour, PA Plant and Animal Sciences, PH Physics, PP Psychiatry/Psychology, PT Pharmacology & Toxicology, SO Social Sciences, General).
In 2007, 85% of published scientific papers affirmed their hypothesis. Some fields have had entire years without a single negative result, and this isn't JUST going on in silly fields like sociology. Oh no, this is molecular bio, chemistry, micro bio, materials science, and physics.
This is not the same thing as research failing to replicate, but it almost certainly is the cause: publishers are playing Texas sharpshooter and ignoring negative results. The rare false positive comes up in someone lab, and ends up becoming the first attempt that's published.
Anonymous
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>>13608397 Since 4channel wouldn't let me post the fucking DOI, the paper is
>Daniele Fanelli (2012). Negative results are disappearing from most disciplines and countries. , 90(3), 891–904 from sociometrics Anonymous
>people’s understanding of the natural world improves >people naturally start to have better hypotheses HURR SCIENCE WRONG DURRR
Anonymous
>>13608467 This would just mean they are wasting time and funding on go nowhere science, something arguably worse than fudging numbers.
Anonymous
>>13608397 Because who the fuck will waste their time writing a paper about a negative if it will never get published anyways?
Anonymous
I've never seen a hypothesis not be affirmed in a machine learning paper. I think if people try something and it doesn't work, they don't even bother submitting it. If something doesn't work, they just reformulate their attempt as a "position paper" supporting the opposite direction.
Anonymous
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>>13608467 >capslock looks like OP triggered and irrational, emotional response lol
Anonymous
>>13608397 the problem i have with this is it doesnt seem to capture novelty or rank of innovation. you wouldnt expect iterative needle moving to generate negative results at the rate of truly exploratory research. furthermore this correlation could just be the resultant gains of computational modelling in research. its easier to be less wrong than ever before. really seems to be an issue of funding priorities though.
Anonymous
>>13608521 Thoeries need to be tested nigger.
Anonymous
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>>13608532 >If something doesn't work, they just reformulate their attempt as a "position paper" supporting the opposite direction. This is the most likely answer. Plus hypothesis can change as the research progresses.
Anonymous
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>>13608467 >HURR SCIENCE WRONG DURRR This is /sci/, not IFLS.
Anonymous
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>>13608525 No shit, this is the fucking problem. Publishers are ruining empirical science.
Anonymous
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>I think if people try something and it doesn't work, they don't even bother submitting it. Yeah that's bad. That's how researchers end up getting false positives. In formal sciences like mathematics or computer science that doesn't matter, but it matters in empirical sciences.
Anonymous
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>>13608954 >you wouldnt expect iterative needle moving to generate negative results at the rate of truly exploratory research [citation needed]
>furthermore this correlation could just be the resultant gains of computational modelling in research. If our computation models are so fucking good we don't even get negatives any more, why would we even bother testing things? I mean, apparently some of these areas have a literally 100% positive rate.
Anonymous
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>>13610655 No, if you're predictions are so good that you have a 100% positive rate, you don't need to test things lmao. It'd mean anything you guess is true.
Which of course is obviously wrong, and means there's false positives. Huh, it's almost like we're having a replication crisis.
Anonymous
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>>13608397 Just trust the ScienceTM!
Anonymous
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>>13608397 This is going to be a massive problem in the future
Anonymous
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>>13608532 This. But it’s much more insidious for the social sciences
Anonymous
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>>13608397 Life's a dance between you and life.
Science only looks at life. I wonder why it fails so much hmmmm.. HMMMMM.
Anonymous
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>>13608397 fucking schizos like you should be imprisoned for eroding the trust in science and experts and endangering the public with fascistic delusions. we only get confirmations because THE SCIENCE IS SETTLED, retard. this is evidence that you SHOULD trurst the science because it's almost NEVER wrong