>>13604593>do it then. Enlighten me.i did, this is me
>>13604475my post had a slight mistake since i read under 30 at first but its literally almost the same thing
the longest part of the post is just trying to break down the reasons for the steps for brainlets
The actual derivation is
P(>30) = 1 - \frac{events \leq 30}{total events}
total events: 100 \cdot 99 = 9900
events \leq 30:
2 \cdot \sum_{i=1}^{15} i
2 \cdot \frac{15(16)}{2}
240
P(>30) = 1 - \frac{240}{9900} = \frac{9600}{9900} ~97%
your simulation assumes double picking (which is fine, just not the vibe I got from the problem description) in that case the derivation is even simpler and arrives at 9745/10000 =97.45%
