so you are at the train station and u see this man and he's playing head or tail with a coin... then you get interested and start watching him. he puts the coin back in the pocket and repeat 200 times randomly drawing a different coin from pocket each time. you notice 4 different kinds of coins. then the man comes to u and asks "how many coins do u think i have in the pocket and which is the probability of tail of each different kind of coin? if you answer correctly you'll win 10k$" ... so, what does /sci/ reply?