/sci/ - Science & Math » Thread #13519784

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If youre so good at maths /sci/ solve this

Anonymous Sat 14 Aug 22:25:37 2021 No.13519784 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>13519837 >>13519946 >>13521078 >>13521849 >>13522102

Probability of getting dubs,trips,quads,etc

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 14 Aug 2021 22:44:02 No.13519837 Report

Quoted By: >>13521243 >>13521718

>>13519784
Can one name a more important theorem in all of statistics?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZGCoVF3YvM&ab_channel=3Blue1Brown

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 14 Aug 2021 22:47:23 No.13519849 Report

Quoted By: >>13519870 >>13519909 >>13519929

Assuming that ids are random-like, as in we can't predict the next id, then it's literally 1/10 for dubs, 1/100 for trips and so on. Bayes is not needed.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 14 Aug 2021 22:50:12 No.13519867 Report

Quoted By: >>13519874

Post numbers aren't completely random.
If the latest post number is 13519100 on a relatively slow board, someone posting in the next few seconds has 0% chance of getting quads. If the latest post number is 13519995, however, someone posting in the next few seconds has a very good chance of getting quads.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 14 Aug 2021 22:50:43 No.13519870 Report

Quoted By: >>13519876

>>13519849
newfag

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 14 Aug 2021 22:51:14 No.13519874 Report

Quoted By:

>>13519867
>Post numbers aren't completely random.
I should say aren't random.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 14 Aug 2021 22:52:03 No.13519876 Report

Quoted By: >>13519929

>>13519870
I'm new to this board, yeah

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 14 Aug 2021 23:05:36 No.13519909 Report

Quoted By: >>13519929 >>13519941

>>13519849
guess im dumb then thought youd need bayes :(

Anonymous

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Anonymous Sat 14 Aug 2021 23:07:45 No.13519917 Report

Quoted By:

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 14 Aug 2021 23:11:25 No.13519929 Report

Quoted By:

>>13519876
>>13519909
>>13519849
id's are numerical, anytime someone posts on the board their post is given an ID +1 from the last most recent post. To predict dubs you would need to predict future post frequency

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 14 Aug 2021 23:15:33 No.13519941 Report

Quoted By: >>13519943 >>13519959

>>13519909
dubs are just 1/100, think about it like a really big dice

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 14 Aug 2021 23:16:34 No.13519943 Report

Quoted By: >>13519959

>>13519941
Sorry meant to say dubs are 1/10 since there are 10 possible dubs to get out of 100 possible

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 14 Aug 2021 23:16:52 No.13519946 Report

Quoted By:

>>13519784
Get?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sat 14 Aug 2021 23:21:21 No.13519959 Report

Quoted By:

>>13519941
>>13519943
yeah thinking like that makes sense :(

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 15 Aug 2021 00:42:46 No.13520193 Report

Quoted By:

10^-n of numbers are n-ubs

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 15 Aug 2021 01:15:35 No.13520288 Report

Quoted By: >>13520451 >>13521823

aint to hard to get dubs

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 15 Aug 2021 02:18:18 No.13520451 Report

Quoted By:

>>13520288
checked

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 15 Aug 2021 03:52:27 No.13520737 Report

Quoted By:

50%: it either happens or it doesn't

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 15 Aug 2021 04:13:07 No.13520791 Report

Quoted By:

50%
anything that claims otherwise is a gambler's fallacy

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 15 Aug 2021 06:43:12 No.13521078 Report

Quoted By:

>>13519784
P(n) = 10/10**n
1/10 dubs
1/100 trips
1/1000 quads

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 15 Aug 2021 07:30:08 No.13521243 Report

Quoted By: >>13521825

>>13519837
wow so intuitive! what a great guy. I bet he has contributed a lot to theory and applications of mathematics!

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 15 Aug 2021 11:43:40 No.13521718 Report

Quoted By: >>13522092

>>13519837
central limit theorem?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 15 Aug 2021 11:47:09 No.13521723 Report

Quoted By:

dubs: 9*10/10^3 = 9/100
trips: 9/10^3
n-ubs: 9/10^n
except
octs: 10/10^8=1/10^7

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 15 Aug 2021 12:38:26 No.13521823 Report

Quoted By:

>>13520288
based

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 15 Aug 2021 12:39:57 No.13521825 Report

Quoted By:

>>13521243
the most impactful currently practicing math educator desu

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 15 Aug 2021 12:57:08 No.13521849 Report

Quoted By:

>>13519784
50/50

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 15 Aug 2021 14:30:58 No.13522092 Report

Quoted By: >>13522109 >>13522176

>>13521718
the central limit theorem is the worst thing to ever happen to statistics

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 15 Aug 2021 14:35:44 No.13522102 Report

Quoted By:

>>13519784
dubs: i.e. last two digits are same as each other but different from third from last (otherwise it's trips/quads/... and not dubs)
9/10 * 1/10 = 9/100
trips: i.e. last three digits are same as each other but different from fourth from last
9/10 * 1/10 * 1/10 = 9/1000
pattern is 9/10^n for n consecutive same digits at end of string
except for octs which would be 1/10^7 as there is no ninth from last digit

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 15 Aug 2021 14:38:09 No.13522109 Report

Quoted By:

>>13522092
Somebody ought to prevent facts from math and probability seeping into statistics.

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 15 Aug 2021 15:00:30 No.13522176 Report

Quoted By:

>>13522092
why?

Anonymous

Anonymous Sun 15 Aug 2021 17:23:37 No.13522555 Report

Quoted By:

There are 30 posts in this thread. The expected number of dubs is 30*0.1 = 3.

There is only 1 dubs in this thread. The probability of that occurring is ~14.1%. The probability of getting at least 2 dubs in this thread is ~81.6%. Where have the dubs gone? Why are we in this thread so bad at getting them?

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