Assuming a coin toss with a 50:50 chance (Head:Tail)
The chances of throwing heads multiple times in a row are:
H,H = 1/2^2
H,H,H = 1/2^3
...
N*H = 1/2^N
Knowing this, is the following possible? -
I sit at home and throw a coin and declare Head as RED and Tail as BLACK.
I throw the coin until I have thrown Heads 6 times in row.
Now I go into the casino and go all in on BLACK because the chances that RED, which I have declared as heads, will appear again are 1/2^7 which is super unlikely.
I win, go home and repeat until I'm rich.
It should work because I've chosen myself as reference frame and from my perspective this event (1/2^7) is super unlikely.
It's like I'm charging myself up at home with a probability and then I use it against the casino.
It's perfectly logical yet nobody is doing this.
What am I missing?
The chances of throwing heads multiple times in a row are:
H,H = 1/2^2
H,H,H = 1/2^3
...
N*H = 1/2^N
Knowing this, is the following possible? -
I sit at home and throw a coin and declare Head as RED and Tail as BLACK.
I throw the coin until I have thrown Heads 6 times in row.
Now I go into the casino and go all in on BLACK because the chances that RED, which I have declared as heads, will appear again are 1/2^7 which is super unlikely.
I win, go home and repeat until I'm rich.
It should work because I've chosen myself as reference frame and from my perspective this event (1/2^7) is super unlikely.
It's like I'm charging myself up at home with a probability and then I use it against the casino.
It's perfectly logical yet nobody is doing this.
What am I missing?