I have calculated that SHA-256 will have been entirely bruteforced by the year 2420,SHA-512 by 2925, and SHA-1024 by 3947, if someone begins attacking their respective SHA hashspaces (is that the term?) NOW with an EMM(2y) (explained below). SHA-256 has already been brute-forced to some degree, and will likely naturally be brute-forced before 2420 if an EMM(2y) begins running today.
I've found, at best, an ASIC that can calculate ~410TH/S, the M40 Whatsminer. I assume it was made in 2021.
According to Moore's Law, the hashing speed should double, if it's proportional to the amount of transistors the hasher contains (very approximate but should hold true), this equation should give me the number of seconds required for a machine built in the year y to calculate (approximately) the entirety of hashes available in a SHA-n "hashspace" (the number of hashes in a SHA-n hashspace (if that's the term, iirc) is of approximately ):
(1/2)
I've found, at best, an ASIC that can calculate ~410TH/S, the M40 Whatsminer. I assume it was made in 2021.
According to Moore's Law, the hashing speed should double, if it's proportional to the amount of transistors the hasher contains (very approximate but should hold true), this equation should give me the number of seconds required for a machine built in the year y to calculate (approximately) the entirety of hashes available in a SHA-n "hashspace" (the number of hashes in a SHA-n hashspace (if that's the term, iirc) is of approximately ):
(1/2)