>>13506103For practical purposes, yes.
The distribution for the croaking of the frogs is unknown. Let's say the average croak is every millisecond - if a few seconds have passed, the possibility that it can't croak is almost 100%. But let's say maybe the average croak is every million years - you can not deduce anything from no croak.
The distribution has an equal chance (with our given information) to be anything - and this balances out, since there are infinite possible distributions that say the frog croaks every X seconds where X is the time since we've seen it, and X to infinite. This equal chance and balancing out gives us 50%
