>>9665526I kept getting this im going crazy, the question is:
Miss Marple next turned her little grey cells to The Butler. Simply because he was a butler,
Miss Marple thought it was a 50/50 chance that he was the murderer; it was just as likely
that he was the murderer as that he wasn’t. But then Harriet the Housekeeper, who had
delivered the tea, volunteered that as she rushed past the kitchen on the way to the adjacent dining room to investigate all the noise, she had seen The Butler vigorously washing his
hands... (Harriet wondered aloud if he might have been washing blood off his hands?)
Miss Marple asked for more tea as she thought about this new information. She trusted
Harriet’s account of what she had seen, but The Butler was a known cleanliness fanatic —
while vigorous handwashing at that late hour might seem a little odd, she thought that if
he had not been murdering Sir Humphrey next door there would still be a 25% chance that
he would be washing his hands like that anyway. On the other hand, if he had just been
murdering his boss, it was very likely, say 95%, that he would have been cleaning his hands
as if his life depended on it (which it just might!). How does Miss Marple update her probability that The Butler is the murderer?
