>>81060017in order to break a billion it needs to make the predicted $350m global this weekend, but you need to understand that comes from in some areas 3 extra days of release (it came out on the 23 and 24 in a couple of dozen countries)
if it isn't doing well there and the reviews put people off, it cannot make $350m this weekend, which means it cannot break a billion because the formula for predicting each successive week is (roughly) half what it made in the previous week, not including the extra days of release prior to the first weekend
so if you make 100 the first week, you'll make 50 the next, 25, 12.5, 6.25, 3.125, and so on until you're making very little after about three months and you stop showing; the very rare exceptions to this make relatively shallow drops between weeks, and sometimes show increases on the second or third weekend over the preceding weeks; they don't make money solidly for three months, however, and there is always a tail-off effect as audiences seek something new out instead
however with the weekend Zootopia just had, it's likely a lot of people will go see that again instead of this; so it's going to lose out there, and it's true that there isn't a lot of direct competition this weekend but there are still alternatives with better reviews and now word of mouth, all of which hurts this release
in any case with a global first weekend of $350m, since the 4 days following tend to be 50%, it could only have been projected for $1,050,000,000 - and that was prior to the reviewlocaust; say it makes $200m this weekend world wide (which is respectable) it'll end up on something like $600m after three months, which is a big gross - but not big enough for what they've spent
