>>126484491This was my read exactly. I'm fairly sure it's not a real memory, either; just reread chapter 7 and Leysa on this page is wearing the clothes from the day before Duane's assassination, aka his last normal day with his family. Lemual wasn't there that day, but Duane did arrive home similar to the figure in the window.
So I'm assuming it really is all allusion to Duane wondering if Lemual salvaged his wilted life (Leysa's lustful eyes, Mikaila looking excited about swords instead of pymary, not sure what the son would be).