The hopeful part of me says Klaus will win. The cynical part of me says The Disney/Pixar award will go to Toy Story 4. And that's comin from a guy who liked Toy Story 4 even more than 2, definitely more than 3. Toy Story 4 is like someone watched 3 and went "hold on, I got a better idea for how to end all this."
Seriously, 3 is Woody and Andy parting ways, which would have been nice except we didn't learn anything about Andy, he's just a typical kid. Toy Story 4 is when Buzz and Woody part ways, there's more weight to that, and they brought back Bo Peep in a way that felt earned. And the villain was definitely better than Stinky Pete and Stinky Pete 2.0.