/sci/ - Science & Math » Thread #9744912

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Anonymous Wed 16 May 12:05:22 2018 No.9744912 View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>9744918 >>9744932 >>9744954 >>9745054 >>9745274 >>9745284 >>9745292 >>9745324 >>9745597 >>9747613 >>9748879 >>9749006 >>9749013

Isn't probabilities just 50%?
Why did they have to over complicate it?
You either get it or you dont.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 12:11:54 No.9744918 Report

Quoted By:

>>9744912
unironically, in some versions of quantum this is accurate

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 12:29:56 No.9744932 Report

Quoted By: >>9744945

>>9744912
Probability Theory: you either get it or you don't.
Those outcomes are not equally likely.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 12:37:29 No.9744945 Report

Quoted By: >>9745061 >>9747635

>>9744932
>implying true randomness exists in the universe

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 12:42:58 No.9744954 Report

Quoted By: >>9744974

>>9744912
What is the probability of something being a probability of 50/50?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 12:51:38 No.9744974 Report

Quoted By: >>9745082

>>9744954
100% are you a retard?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 13:46:58 No.9745054 Report

Quoted By: >>9745060

>>9744912
And you obviously don't get it.
Buy a lottery ticket.
Either you win or you don't, right? 50/50
Buy two tickets with different numbers.
If one doesn't win (and it won't, half the time) the other one MUST be drawn.
Now that you're filthy rich you can hire a mathematician to teach you probability

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 13:49:55 No.9745060 Report

Quoted By: >>9745156

>>9745054
if you buy 2 tickets and lose that means the next 2 you buy will win and so on

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 13:50:12 No.9745061 Report

Quoted By: >>9745156 >>9745173

>>9744945
>It's a brainlet on /sci/ denying settled science episode

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 13:59:28 No.9745082 Report

Quoted By: >>9745156

>>9744974

So how can probabilities then just be 50%?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 14:32:50 No.9745156 Report

Quoted By: >>9745339

>>9745082
>>9745061
>>9745060
What's the probability of 3 separate coins all being heads if I flipped them at the same time?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 14:39:46 No.9745173 Report

Quoted By: >>9745286 >>9745296

>>9745061
>the existence of randomness in the universe is settled science
You're fucking retarded

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 15:38:52 No.9745274 Report

Quoted By: >>9747637

>>9744912
You completely miss what statistics is about, it is about using all the knowledge available to give probabilities of outcomes.

in the Monty Hall problem if you did NOT know about him opening a losing door every time then indeed the probability of you winning is 50% regardless of which door is chosen, but uing the knowledge that of the three doors he will open a losing door, you can then compute the probability to be that the probability is 2 times better if you switch doors.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 15:44:15 No.9745284 Report

Quoted By:

>>9744912
>Isn't probabilities just 50%?
>Why did they have to over complicate it?
>You either get it or you dont.
I'm going for a walk.
I'll either get hit by lightning or I won't.
50-50

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 15:46:33 No.9745286 Report

Quoted By: >>9745296

>>9745173
The burden of proof lies on the claim that there ARE hidden variables. Tits or GTFO, except in this case the tits are a valid hidden variable theory.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 15:49:27 No.9745292 Report

Quoted By:

>>9744912
No, because they will always open a door with a goat. You don't actually learn anything when they do that, because there's two goats, so you knew one of the ones you didn't pick had a goat. By choosing to switch, you're effectively getting two doors instead of one. They're tricking you by showing the goat.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 15:50:20 No.9745296 Report

Quoted By: >>9745314

>>9745173
>>9745286
Could you two just acknowledge you're both framing your interpretation of scientific knowledge in a way that suits your own personal emotional needs rather than any objective truth?
I'm mean I know Monty Hall threads are meant for shitposting, but come on...

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 16:00:04 No.9745314 Report

Quoted By: >>9745322

>>9745296
Bell's theorem.

Either, quantum processes are random in that the state of the system is "set" upon measurement (interaction)

OR

They are "random" in that the global hidden variables predetermine the result of every such measurement in an as-of-yet unpredictable manner

Until there is substantial evidence for the latter, compared to the current amount, which is zero, random processes are a fact.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 16:03:14 No.9745322 Report

Quoted By: >>9745323

>>9745314
I'm not trying to settle your 'tardish argument, just trying to say you're both being children.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 16:04:13 No.9745323 Report

Quoted By: >>9745371

>>9745322
The argument isn't tardish, it's just a hundred years old and pretty much settled everywhere but here.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 16:04:18 No.9745324 Report

Quoted By:

>>9744912

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 16:12:14 No.9745339 Report

Quoted By: >>9745590

>>9745156
50%
it either happens or it doesn't

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 16:42:43 No.9745371 Report

Quoted By:

>>9745323
You're still missing the point.
We're supposedly talking about the Monty Hall problem, a puzzle that would still work the same way in a deterministic universe.
You're banging a particular drum because it satisfies your own personal emotional needs, not because it's relevant to the subject at hand.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 18:23:20 No.9745590 Report

Quoted By: >>9748855

>>9745339
But it doesnt happen in several different ways, thus it's not just 2 outcomes you dumn nigger

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 18:25:52 No.9745597 Report

Quoted By:

>>9744912
The initial probability is that you've picked a goat or a car, which is a 50/50 chance, not a 1/3 chance.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 16 May 2018 19:23:14 No.9745728 Report

Quoted By: >>9748123 >>9749116

>Switch
Pick goat. Switch. Win car.
Pick goat. Switch. Win car.
Pick car. Switch. Win goat.

>Don't switch
Pick goat. Don't switch. Win goat.
Pick goat. Don't switch. Win goat.
Pick car. Don't switch. Win car.

You do the math.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 17 May 2018 12:43:46 No.9747602 Report

Quoted By: >>9747623

PROBABILITY ? CHANCE
CHANCE ? PROBABILITY

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 17 May 2018 12:48:13 No.9747606 Report

Quoted By:

Woah... there is a 50% chance of every person on earth dying all at once, every microsecond. We are so lucky to have made it this far.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 17 May 2018 12:55:55 No.9747613 Report

Quoted By:

>>9744912
This might be the best illustration of the problem so far.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 17 May 2018 13:03:43 No.9747623 Report

Quoted By:

>>9747602
How exactly are they different?

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 17 May 2018 13:17:48 No.9747635 Report

Quoted By:

>>9744945
>implying it has to

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 17 May 2018 13:19:14 No.9747637 Report

Quoted By:

>>9745274
Technically, no. Statistical analysis is about learning information about a population of agents. It doesn't even have to be random.

You're right if you reword it as probability, however.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Thu 17 May 2018 18:17:46 No.9748123 Report

Quoted By:

>>9745728

you change = 2/3 car

you stick = 2/3 goat

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 17 May 2018 18:38:30 No.9748159 Report

Quoted By:

Let's say this is happening for a TV game show

After the player makes his original choice, the TV host opens a door. The player must now decide between the two remaining doors.
However, we know that the TV host will only open a door which doesn't have the car behind it. That's why it's more advantageous to switch to the other door

Let's say that there were 1000 doors. You pick one, then the TV host opens 998 of the remaining doors. There are now 2 doors remaining.

Which one is more likely to have the goat? The one you chose initially, one of the other 999 that the host deliberately avoided opening?
Obviously it makes sense to switch your guess in this scenario

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 May 2018 00:13:10 No.9748855 Report

Quoted By:

>>9745590
did the 3 coins land head?
either yes or no
50/50

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 May 2018 00:26:30 No.9748879 Report

Quoted By:

>>9744912
i fuck your sister raw
she has a 50% chance of getting pregnant
she either is or she isn't

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 May 2018 01:42:51 No.9749006 Report

Quoted By:

>>9744912

But what is the probability that that black man steals the car?

Anonymous

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Anonymous Fri 18 May 2018 01:49:42 No.9749013 Report

Quoted By:

>>9744912
>Implying the player doesn't want the goat

Anonymous

Anonymous Fri 18 May 2018 02:41:45 No.9749116 Report

Quoted By:

>>9745728
>Switch
Pick goat. Switch. Win car or goat.
Pick goat. Switch. Win car or goat.
Pick car. Switch. Win goat or goat.

>Don't switch
Pick goat. Don't switch. Win goat.
Pick goat. Don't switch. Win goat.
Pick car. Don't switch. Win cart.

You do the math.

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