>>104686074so the usual metric for an unknown is first week (Mon-Thu) is 50% of opening weekend, and second week total (Fri-Thu) is 50% of first week, with that pattern repeated (so week 3 is 50% of week 2) until about week 12 (when most things are winding up anyway), and (for big-budget US-made movies) the overseas is about 50% of the total worldwide gross
obviously for known quantities you have to modify that - for example Spider-Man movies always do much better overseas (as in, they make more than 50% of their total overseas by a significant margin, not as in doing badly domestically); with the DCEU movies it's been a pattern of strong - record breaking - opening weekends and almost immediate 60% or worse dropoffs; some of that is down to the opening being unsustainably high (or at least that was the theory until all those 2 billion Star Wars movies started happening), but the DCEU has sustained drops week to week beyond what it would expect under the 50% model - so it's making less than it would have with a weaker opening and a 50% week to week drop for three months
the other thing here which may be a predictor of eventual performance is that China loves movies that nobody else likes: The Great Wall (because CHINA!), Warcraft, and xXx: The Return of Xander Cage being prime examples; it's also true that they like movies everybody else likes, but it's fair to say for Western movies they won't always make the same choices as Western audiences, so a strong opener there might save a movie from bankruptcy but it's not a solid predictor of how things will go elsewhere - and opening there weeks before anywhere else suggests the screeners have been backing that idea up
if the opening week in the US is as good, then the film will be profitable (but not necessarily watchable); if not, it's a busted flush - remember Justice League was on $100m domestically at day 4, but only $30m higher on day 7, so a high opener isn't the life saver it might otherwise appear
